FXUS63 KMQT 250534 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 134 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers ending over the eastern half this evening. - Dry weather with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week. No significantly impactful weather expected over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Radar and satellite imagery show lake effect rain showers ongoing across eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon, with the bulk of the activity focused east of Marquette into Alger County. These showers have produced only meager rainfall amounts today, with no site reporting more than a few hundredths of an inch so far. Showers will finally taper off across the area this evening as broad upper level troughing centered over Quebec shifts off to the north and east. Light winds and at least partially clearing skies will allow for another night of chilly temps, with lows dipping into the 30s near the lakes and into the mid to upper 20s in the interior. A trailing shortwave trough will moves across Wisconsin and Lower Michigan late tonight into early Saturday. Expect impacts from this feature to be mostly limited to just an increase in mid and high level clouds across the U.P. as any precipitation stays south of the state line. High pressure builds over the region on Saturday, yielding dry and pleasant weather for the weekend and likely into the beginning of next week. 850 mb temperatures climbing up above freezing on Saturday will allow daytime highs to jump slightly above seasonal norms into the low 50s on Saturday and into the mid 50s over much of the area on Sunday, with overnight lows rebounding slightly into the 30s inland and perhaps the low 40s near the lakes. Models continue to struggle with regard to exactly how the pattern will evolve through next week, but the bulk of the guidance keeps Upper Michigan dry through at least early Tuesday as high pressure holds to the north over Ontario and Quebec through the early part of the week. Forecast uncertainty largely derives from the evolution of an upper level trough as it slowly retrogrades from the Canadian Maritimes and New England into the eastern Great Lakes and how that feature interacts with another trough moving out of the Central Plains in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Generally speaking, can reasonably expect an uptick in precipitation chances mid to late next week as increasing cyclonic flow will be conducive to a more showery pattern with temps settling back closer to seasonal norms in the mid to upper 40s. Will continue to ride with a broad brushed, NBM heavy approach in the long term given the lack of forecast confidence in the details in timing and position of the trough at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR will be the predominant flight category for the duration of the TAF period with high pressure and drier air in place. Meanwhile, expect a wind shift to the southwest at SAW this afternoon, but winds will be under 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Northwest winds of 15-20 kt continue to diminish to 10-15 kt through this evening as trough departs to the east and is replaced by surface high pressure across Lake Superior. Removed the remaining Small Craft headlines for the eastern nearshores a few hours early as latest obs show waves subsiding to 2-3 ft in most locations. Winds shift southeasterly tonight and remain below 20 kt through early Sunday. Could see some gusts in the 20-25 kt range over the central third of the lake and near the Keweenaw late Sunday into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between strengthening high over Quebec and low pressure over central/northern Plains. Forecast confidence decreases mid to late week, but latest probs generally depict a 20-40% chance for winds exceeding 20 kt for Tuesday onward. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...CB