FXUS63 KMQT 241119 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue downwind of Lake Superior through this afternoon over the east half. - Cool temperatures today warm above normal this weekend as dry conditions settle overhead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Lingering northwest lake effect rain showers over the east half gradually taper off today as cyclonic flow aloft diminishes and high pressure builds in at the surface. Some wet snowflakes may mix in with the rain over the high terrain of the north central UP early this morning; snow accumulation is not expected. Widespread QPF amounts are only a few hundreths by the end of the day, but around 0.20-0.40" is anticipated over western Alger County where the most frequent shower coverage is due to favorable winds and fetch over Lake Superior. Highs will be near normal in the 40s. With high pressure becoming centered over the Great Lakes tonight colder temps will be more widespread across the UP in the 20s for the interior and low to mid 30s at the lakeshores. That said, this likely (75% chance) will occur early in the night for the western two thirds of the UP as a shortwave dropping over Wisconsin and its associated moisture will yield increasing mid to high level clouds, preventing ideal radiative cooling processes. Precip, if any, will remain southwest of the CWA as model soundings are quite dry at the surface. Meanwhile, a ridge builds upstream over the Plains. This ridge moves to the Great Lakes by the end of the weekend, increasing warm air advection and bringing above normal temps for the remainder of the weekend. Highs are expected in the low to mid 50s on Saturday and mid to upper 50s for Sunday. Overnight lows settle in the 30s to low 40s. This ridge gives way on Monday, becoming a closed high over eastern Canada while broad troughing continues over western Canada and the northwestern CONUS. Dry weather holds on Monday, but uncertainty grows into next week as PoPs slowly return. Highs are expected in the 50s. Opted to leave the NBM as is Tuesday onward as models are not in great agreement on the pattern progression. Latest deterministic guidance shows a mid level wave over the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast U.S. on Tuesday retrograding somewhere over the Upper Great Lakes/Northern Ontario through at least Wednesday while another wave dives to the southeast of the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, it is unclear how long high pressure will hold overhead throughout all of this. Meanwhile, another ridge quickly sets up over the western CONUS, shifting east to the Plains by Wednesday night. This high pressure at least looks to hold off most precip until midweek before the break down allows for PoPs to return, possibly as lake effect off Lake Michigan before any synoptic precip arrives. Near normal temps and no significant impacts are expected for the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 With high pressure encroaching on the UP from the west, the last MVFR conditions from lake effect -SHRA will lift and scatter to VFR this morning, remaining quiet through today and tonight. Winds will mostly be light and variable throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Northwest 15-25 kt winds this morning settle to around 15-20 kts by this afternoon, further lowering to less than 15 kts by tonight as high pressure builds overhead. High pressure then keeps winds mainly 15 kts or less through Sunday morning. Southeast winds increase on Sunday, reaching 15-25 kts by late in the day. The strongest are expected over the central third of the lake as Lake Superior becomes straddled between a northward lifting ~995mb low pressure over the northern Plains and a 1034mb high over Quebec. The same wind regime will continue on Monday, but could change Monday night/Tuesday as guidance is not in great agreement on the pattern progression mid to late next week, leaving forecast confidence still low after Monday night. Current probabilities of winds exceeding 20 kts are around 20- 40% Tuesday through Thursday, increasing on Friday to between 25-50% across the lake. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...GS MARINE...77