FXUS63 KMQT 190019 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 819 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers press west to east tonight, lingering across the eastern UP early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 GOES Satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal a broad ridge across much of the central CONUS with a weak embedded mid-level shortwave pressing through the Upper Midwest this afternoon. So far, isentropic ascent has been able to force light showers across the region, but with limited MUCAPE (less than 100 j/kg) and pathetic lapse rates aloft, no lightning has been observed in the UP, however, a few GLM flashes in upstream Duluth's area may provide a stray clap of thunder this evening in the west. The overall better forcing has remained to the south, so despite increasing PWATs, showers have remained on the light side. Should an increase in coverage occur this evening, a few heavy rain producing showers are possible. Otherwise, temperatures have managed to hold in the mid to low 60s today and are not expected to cool much overnight. The aforementioned wave presses east tonight and shower activity will decrease from west to east. Landfalling trough in the PNW and building ridge over the 4 Corners region increases heights overhead the N Plains and Upper Midwest, expanding sfc high pressure from the north through much of Tuesday. Lingering low level moisture will keep cloudy skies overhead before a subtle cold front ushers in an drier airmass Tuesday night into Wednesday. Look for slightly warmer temps tomorrow in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure remains in place through midweek before ridge-riding shortwaves cause the ridge to receded southwards by Friday. Expect dry weather to persist to at least early Friday. Then, a deeper trough and associated surface low move through Manitoba and Ontario Friday into the weekend. This will bring in our next chances for rain as a cold front sweeps through. Additionally, though a warming trend is expected after through the mid-week, temperatures may turn cooler than average next weekend behind the front. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 819 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Lingering low level moisture will keep cigs in the MVFR/IFR range at all TAF sites through tomorrow morning with periods of LIFR at times. Moisture will be slow to clear out with a return to VFR delayed until tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, southeasterly winds will shift to the northwest through the course of the TAF period but will remain light. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Southeast winds of 15-25 kts across most of the lake, strongest north central, continue into this evening. Winds gradually settle below 20 kts through tonight from west to east as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds then back northerly for Tuesday and become variable through the remainder of the week as broad ridging over the region keeps winds mainly below 20 kts. The next shot at widespread 20-30 kt winds arrives this weekend as a low pressure system tracks to the north. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...Jablonski