FXUS63 KMQT 041859

AFDMQT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

259 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another system brings breezy conditions and additional chances for 

showers across Upper Michigan today. There is a slight chance (15%) 

for thunderstorms in the far eastern U.P. this afternoon.



- Benign weather with cooler than normal temperatures expected 

the rest of this week and beyond.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



Upper air pattern consists of deep cutoff lows over northern Ontario 

and central CA with ridging stacked on top of the CA low and over 

Mexico with mostly zonal flow over much of the eastern 2/3 of the 

CONUS. This is a quite blocky pattern that will result in a stagnant 

weather pattern in the near term.



For the remainder of today, the cold front from the near 982 mb 

surface low over northern Ontario will continue to push through and 

bring showers to the eastern UP this afternoon. An isolated 

thunderclap or two cannot be ruled out in the far southeast (and 

LightningCast has presented some locations of ~10% lightning probs 

early this afternoon), though no lightning has been observed yet. 

Clearing skies have already been observed in the west behind the 

front, though upstream, some remnant fair weather cu is observed. 

Partly cloudy skies, especially in the interior west, will allow for 

temperatures to fall to near- or sub-freezing tonight. Wind gusts, 

which are as high as 48 mph at CMX, will decline below 20 mph 

overnight except for at the immediate lakeshores of Lake Superior.



With the blocky weather pattern featuring the major surface pressure 

systems far away from the Great Lakes, the dominant feature will be 

the surface high that sets up over the Plains as the block is 

displaced slightly east and southeast. This sets up mostly benign 

weather conditions over the UP through early Thursday morning, and 

even with the potential for a weak shortwave to bring showers 

Thursday, NBM PoPs are sub-20. Fire weather will be worth keeping an 

eye on in spite of high temperatures remaining 60 degrees or less. 

RHs are forecast to dry out to the 30s% range in the interior and 

locally into the 20s% range along the state line, though the 

presence of winds hazardous to fire weather is somewhat unknown, as 

the deterministic NBM forecast suggests PM wind gusts regularly near 

or in excess of 15 kt, though the LREF joint probabilities of 15 mph 

winds and sub-30 RH is less than 10%. It may be some time before our 

next widespread chances of precipitation, as this pattern is showing 

no clear signs of breaking up, and the next time the LREF shows 

widespread chances of over 0.1 inches of precip in a day in excess 

of 25% is not until the 13th.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period amid gusty west to 

northwest winds behind a cold front. Wind gusts of 25-40 kt will be 

common through this evening (highest at CMX). CMX is reporting MVFR 

cigs on the 17Z ob, and can expect those cigs intermittently through 

around 20Z. A stray shower cannot be ruled out through the rest of 

the daylight hours, but associated vsby/cig restrictions are not 

expected. Winds gradually diminish overnight tonight.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



Gusty southwesterly to westerly winds continue this afternoon and 

evening, with gusts to near 35 kt especially in the nearshores just 

to the north of the Keweenaw Peninsula. Winds fall to near 25 kt 

around midnight, lingering between 20-25 kt until Tuesday night. 

With the major pressure systems remaining far away from the Upper 

Great Lakes, wind gusts should remain sub-20 kt for the remainder of 

the week and the weekend. Waves will slowly subside through tonight 

and Tuesday, first falling below 8 ft after midnight, below 5 ft by 

Tuesday evening, and then below 3 ft by Wednesday morning.



&&



.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Upper Michigan...

None.

Lake Superior...

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243-244-264-

     266.



Lake Michigan...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...GS

AVIATION...Thompson

MARINE...GS