FXUS63 KMPX 251130 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 630 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers ending by mid-morning. Rainfall amounts will be light. - Seasonable temperatures this weekend, with afternoon highs in the 50s to lower 60s. - Rain chances return Tuesday, however rainfall amounts continue to trend down as guidance favors a weaker/less organized system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Water vapor imagery highlights a potent shortwave digging into the Upper Midwest early this morning. Our shortwave had produced an area of scattered showers across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Additional scattered showers continue through daybreak before drying out. A wedge of dry low level air has eroded some precipitation potential, but the mid level forcing has won out for the most part. Precipitation amounts are going to be light, a trace to a tenth of an inch, and shouldn't do much to dampen your Saturday plans. Overall, Saturday will be a fairly pleasant fall day. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the afternoon hours and temperatures warm into 50s. Rain chances fall off by mid-morning and we'll remain dry for the remainder of the day. Skies will finally begin to scatter this evening and we'll finally see the return of sunshine on Sunday. Sunday will be a nicer of the two days with highs near 60 with mostly sunny skies. A seasonable stretch for those to get outside and enjoy all the offerings of late October in the Upper Midwest. Our attention turns to early next week, which is trending more toward a non-event than anything else at this point. The potential for a bigger, more organized system has really fallen off over the last two days or so. If we look at the 500mb vorticity & jet in the models across the CONUS - we can observe a turbulent flow across the central CONUS as a ridge over the Upper Midwest is undercut by a cut off wave that'll act to shear out the incoming wave upstream. The latest ECMWF somehow features a Rex block & Omega block early Monday centered over the western Great Lakes. This leads to a weak surface feature that'll bring light rain through Monday night into Tuesday and amounts look between 0.25 to 0.50" across southern and central Minnesota. The energy then shoots into the Ohio River Valley where it'll eventually turn into a meaningful system for the eastern CONUS. I like to think of it as an atmospheric blender, one that does not favor a well organized storm system. Of course this is one solution and the other deterministic models show just as chaotic solutions, too. There is plenty of time for "change" but given how everything has a non-event IE light rain and not much else... it's worth monitoring if you have outdoor plans or have to bag up some leaves. Temperatures look seasonable through the 7 days with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 KMPX radar shows plenty of echoes this morning but very few sites are reporting rain at the surface and that has been the case since around midnight. (Case in point: MSP has only reported rain once tonight, at 04z.) Thus, aside from the cluster of high reflectivities around EAU, have kept the TAFs dry. Ceilings in western MN will remain down into MVFR range for much of the morning while eastern MN into western WI start out in VFR and will remain as such. Partial clearing looks likely at the easternmost sites, but otherwise mid-level ceilings will prevail. Winds will continue from the SE, with speeds nearing 15G25kts in western MN and closer to 10kts in eastern MN into western WI. KMSP...Very few concerns for this TAF cycle. Mid-level ceilings toprevail into this evening then partial clearing expected. Winds to remain from the SE with speeds around 10kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind E 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...JPC