FXUS63 KMPX 250910

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

410 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered rain showers ending by mid-morning. Rainfall amounts 

  will be light.



- Seasonable temperatures this weekend, with afternoon highs in the 

  50s to lower 60s. 



- Rain chances return Tuesday, however rainfall amounts continue

  to trend down as guidance favors a weaker/less organized

  system.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Water vapor imagery highlights a potent shortwave digging into the 

Upper Midwest early this morning. Our shortwave had produced an area 

of scattered showers across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. 

Additional scattered showers continue through daybreak before drying 

out. A wedge of dry low level air has eroded some precipitation 

potential, but the mid level forcing has won out for the most part. 

Precipitation amounts are going to be light, a trace to a tenth of 

an inch, and shouldn't do much to dampen your Saturday plans. 

Overall, Saturday will be a fairly pleasant fall day. Skies will 

remain mostly cloudy through the afternoon hours and temperatures 

warm into 50s. Rain chances fall off by mid-morning and we'll remain 

dry for the remainder of the day. Skies will finally begin to 

scatter this evening and we'll finally see the return of sunshine on 

Sunday. Sunday will be a nicer of the two days with highs near 60 

with mostly sunny skies. A seasonable stretch for those to get 

outside and enjoy all the offerings of late October in the Upper 

Midwest. 



Our attention turns to early next week, which is trending more 

toward a non-event than anything else at this point. The potential 

for a bigger, more organized system has really fallen off over the 

last two days or so. If we look at the 500mb vorticity & jet in the 

models across the CONUS - we can observe a turbulent flow across the 

central CONUS as a ridge over the Upper Midwest is undercut by a cut 

off wave that'll act to shear out the incoming wave upstream. The 

latest ECMWF somehow features a Rex block & Omega block early Monday 

centered over the western Great Lakes. This leads to a weak surface 

feature that'll bring light rain through Monday night into Tuesday 

and amounts look between 0.25 to 0.50" across southern and central 

Minnesota. The energy then shoots into the Ohio River Valley where 

it'll eventually turn into a meaningful system for the eastern 

CONUS. I like to think of it as an atmospheric blender, one that

does not favor a well organized storm system. Of course this is

one solution and the other deterministic models show just as 

chaotic solutions, too. There is plenty of time for "change" but

given how everything has a non-event IE light rain and not much

else... it's worth monitoring if you have outdoor plans or have

to bag up some leaves. Temperatures look seasonable through the

7 days with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Light rain continues to spread across central and eastern MN

into west-central WI. Most sites are VFR but a few heavier

showers are on the MN/WI border with MVFR VSBYs. Sites should

remain VFR but brief MVFR drops can't be ruled out. There is

some uncertainty with the intensity given dry lower levels in

place ahead of the shortwave. Better moisture across SW/W MN 

will reach southern and east central MN and western WI

overnight. This will support better coverage of -RA late

tonight. There is still a window for MVFR ceilings, but have 

maintained low end VFR for now. Skies will be slow to scatter,

likely BKN through the afternoon hours. 



KMSP... Confidence is high enough to transition a PROB30 to a

TEMPO group for light rain overnight. Low VFR cigs are likely,

but I can't rule out brief stints of MVFR cigs of 2500 feet 

AGL. Confidence remains a bit above average at this point in 

the current forecast.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-20 kts. 

MON...VFR. Slgt chc -RA. Wind SE 10-20 kts.

TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BPH

AVIATION...BPH