FXUS63 KMPX 241741 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today, temperatures starting out in the 20s this morning, with afternoon highs rebounding into the 50s and 60s. - Friday night into early Saturday, confidence continues to increase for rain. - Confidence remains low for next week's weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Late morning mixing is promoting the erosion of dense river fog along the MN/WI border. Water vapor captures the incoming potent shortwave crossing the International border. Latest guidance has trended upwards with both the precip footprint and QPF amounts, so have collaborated with neighboring offices to boost PoPs from 20-30s to 40-60s across eastern MN/western WI tonight through Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Today through Saturday morning...Early morning temperatures were in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the region as surface high pressure lead to clear skies and cool temperatures. The high pressure was slowly drifting eastward, and as a result southerly winds were starting to develop across western Minnesota. This trend will continue today, and the southerly wind will bring warmer temperatures with highs back in the 60s across western Minnesota, and 50s elsewhere. Later tonight, a potent little shortwave trough will move from North Dakota down along I-94. HiRes models are coming into better agreement in showers developing with the warm air advection ahead of this wave, so have continued with rain chances late tonight into Saturday morning, especially along and east of I-35. If this trend continues, would expect the rainfall chances to increase with the next few forecast updates. Saturday afternoon through Thursday...This potent little wave will quickly shear out, and rain chances will end from west to east late Saturday morning. Expect a dry afternoon for most, and this will continue into early Sunday as well. Then throughout the day, rainfall chances will slowly return as the next system approaches from the west. However, confidence with the timing and location of precipitation for Sunday and beyond is low. What once was an impressive cyclone, is now split flow, with the main jet energy to the south, and an omega block to the north. This pattern is overall hard to predict, and tends to trend drier with time. For now, still have a smattering of small rain chances throughout the week. By the time next weekend rolls around, expect cool temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Clear skies are expected to become BKN/OVC late this afternoon and evening as our next system approaches from the northwest. Breezy southeasterly winds, especially for AXN are expected to decrease after sunset to around 5-7kts. The primary concern this period will be overnight -SHRA chances mostly for our eastern sites. Strongest confidence for coverage will be at MKT, RNH, and EAU. Hence a few hours of prevailing -SHRA at those locations. STC as of now looked to be on the fringe of the potential precip therefore maintained prob30 mention for that location. Once the system clears to our SE tomorrow morning, cigs will be slow to improve to back to around 5-10kft late morning. KMSP...Aside from the concerns in the main aviation discussion, decided to maintain prob30 -SHRA mentions at MSP for now. Although will need to watch the amount of dry air in the boundary layer overnight. Should this be of lesser extent, could result in better chances of -SHRA coverage during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. Borderline MVFR, low VFR cigs will linger through most of the morning before slightly improving to cigs between 5-10kft in the afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. MON-TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...Strus DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...Dunleavy