FXUS63 KMPX 241606

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Today, temperatures starting out in the 20s this morning, 

  with afternoon highs rebounding into the 50s and 60s.



- Friday night into early Saturday, confidence continues to

  increase for rain.

 

- Confidence remains low for next week's weather.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Late morning mixing is promoting the erosion of dense river fog

along the MN/WI border. Water vapor captures the incoming potent

shortwave crossing the International border. Latest guidance has

trended upwards with both the precip footprint and QPF amounts,

so have collaborated with neighboring offices to boost PoPs from

20-30s to 40-60s across eastern MN/western WI tonight through

Saturday morning. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Today through Saturday morning...Early morning temperatures were

in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the region as surface high

pressure lead to clear skies and cool temperatures. The high

pressure was slowly drifting eastward, and as a result southerly

winds were starting to develop across western Minnesota. This

trend will continue today, and the southerly wind will bring

warmer temperatures with highs back in the 60s across western

Minnesota, and 50s elsewhere. 



Later tonight, a potent little shortwave trough will move from

North Dakota down along I-94. HiRes models are coming into

better agreement in showers developing with the warm air 

advection ahead of this wave, so have continued with rain

chances late tonight into Saturday morning, especially along and

east of I-35. If this trend continues, would expect the rainfall

chances to increase with the next few forecast updates.



Saturday afternoon through Thursday...This potent little wave 

will quickly shear out, and rain chances will end from west to 

east late Saturday morning. Expect a dry afternoon for most, and

this will continue into early Sunday as well. Then throughout 

the day, rainfall chances will slowly return as the next system

approaches from the west. 



However, confidence with the timing and location of

precipitation for Sunday and beyond is low. What once was an 

impressive cyclone, is now split flow, with the main jet energy

to the south, and an omega block to the north. This pattern is

overall hard to predict, and tends to trend drier with time. For

now, still have a smattering of small rain chances throughout

the week. By the time next weekend rolls around, expect cool

temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with a mixture

of FEW/SCT high clouds drifting across the region into this

afternoon. The only wrinkle will be early morning through

daybreak ground fog at the WI TAF sites. Any fog is not expected

to be sustained, more intermittent, so have used TEMPO groups

for IFR-or-worse conditions thru daybreak. High cloud coverage

will gradually increase late day into tonight, resulting in high

ceilings over western MN prior to 12z, and this trend will

likely continue eastward into more TAF sites. Ceilings will drop

into the mid-levels close to sunrise Saturday morning and there

is a small chance of some rain showers in eastern MN into

western WI late tonight to around sunrise Saturday. Little, if

any, impacts expected. Winds will remain from the SE 

throughout, running light/variable overnight then increasing to 

around 10kts for the daylight hours into Friday evening.



KMSP...Mostly dry conditions expected throughout this TAF set 

with light/variable winds overnight increasing to near 10kts 

from shortly after sunrise onward. Ceilings are likely this 

evening, lowering to the mid-levels during the early morning

hours. A few passing showers are possible during the early

morning hours but little to no impacts are expected if any

showers do reach MSP.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. 

MON-TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Strus

DISCUSSION...JRB

AVIATION...JPC