FXUS63 KMPX 240811

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

311 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Today, temperatures starting out in the 20s this morning, 

  with afternoon highs rebounding into the 50s and 60s.



- Friday night into early Saturday, confidence continues to

  increase for rain.

 

- Confidence remains low for next week's weather.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Today through Saturday morning...Early morning temperatures were

in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the region as surface high

pressure lead to clear skies and cool temperatures. The high

pressure was slowly drifting eastward, and as a result southerly

winds were starting to develop across western Minnesota. This

trend will continue today, and the southerly wind will bring

warmer temperatures with highs back in the 60s across western

Minnesota, and 50s elsewhere. 



Later tonight, a potent little shortwave trough will move from

North Dakota down along I-94. HiRes models are coming into

better agreement in showers developing with the warm air 

advection ahead of this wave, so have continued with rain

chances late tonight into Saturday morning, especially along and

east of I-35. If this trend continues, would expect the rainfall

chances to increase with the next few forecast updates.



Saturday afternoon through Thursday...This potent little wave 

will quickly shear out, and rain chances will end from west to 

east late Saturday morning. Expect a dry afternoon for most, and

this will continue into early Sunday as well. Then throughout 

the day, rainfall chances will slowly return as the next system

approaches from the west. 



However, confidence with the timing and location of

precipitation for Sunday and beyond is low. What once was an 

impressive cyclone, is now split flow, with the main jet energy

to the south, and an omega block to the north. This pattern is

overall hard to predict, and tends to trend drier with time. For

now, still have a smattering of small rain chances throughout

the week. By the time next weekend rolls around, expect cool

temperatures. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with a mixture

of FEW/SCT high clouds drifting across the region into this

afternoon. The only wrinkle will be early morning through

daybreak ground fog at the WI TAF sites. Any fog is not expected

to be sustained, more intermittent, so have used TEMPO groups

for IFR-or-worse conditions thru daybreak. High cloud coverage

will gradually increase late day into tonight, resulting in high

ceilings over western MN prior to 12z, and this trend will

likely continue eastward into more TAF sites over the next set

of routine TAF issuances. Winds will remain from the SE

throughout, running light/variable overnight then increasing to

around 10kts for the daylight hours into Friday evening.



KMSP...Dry conditions expected throughout this TAF set with

light/variable winds overnight increasing to near 10kts from

shortly after sunrise onward. Ceilings are likely this evening

but chances for any showers tonight into Saturday morning are 

too low to include at this time.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. 

MON-TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JRB

AVIATION...JPC