FXUS63 KMPX 240549

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1249 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another widespread freeze expected tonight.



- Highs rebound to the 50s and 60s Friday into the weekend.



- Increasing confidence for precip Friday night into early 

  Saturday. 



- Confidence remains low for early next week's system.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Surface high pressure continues to build in today which is

helping keeping our skies clear mainly for much central and 

southern MN. Cyclonic flow will be located mainly east of the MS

River Valley for the rest of today thus diurnal cu will remain 

most concentrated over eastern MN into western WI as we head 

into the evening. Come tonight, any existing cloud cover is 

expected to dissipate later which should allow most sites to 

sink below freezing overnight. Widespread overnight lows look to

reach the mid to upper 20s, except for those in western MN and 

the core TC-meto holding off into the low 30s. 



Through the course of Friday, upper-level ridging deepens well

into Manitoba. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a wave 

will quickly dive southward across Minnesota. As this occurs, 

northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will increase and become 

southwesterly thus increasing moisture given PWAT values 

reflecting three quarters of an inch. In previous runs, the NBM 

has resulted in notably drier solutions however, now it looks to

finally be catching up by encapsulating a broader region of QPF

across eastern MN and western WI by early Saturday morning. For

those lucky areas, a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch 

could be in the rain gauge by sunrise. Once the wave clears to 

the SE, skies are forecasted to be partly sunny with afternoon 

highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Sunday looks to be a near 

repeat of Saturday without the early morning PoPs and slightly 

warmer. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 



We are continuing to monitor the system that is expected track 

"somewhere" across the northern plains early next week. Guidance 

continues to struggle with determining the low's track. Members 

of the EPS currently favor more of an eastern ND/NW'rn MN track 

whereas the GEFS favors a southern MN and IA track. Agreement 

does however exist with the overall strength being a weaker 

system with nearly all members only deviating a mb or two from 

1000mb. Should the GEFS track become the favored route in future

runs, this will greatly increase our QPF footprint especially 

over southwestern MN. Now in terms of P-type, luckily 

temperatures are forecasted to remain well above freezing as 

this system comes through. Therefore no tricks or treats are 

planned in terms of snowfall prior to Halloween. The forecast 

quiets down Wednesday as flow becomes zonal. Temperatures will 

range near normal or just below normal with highs in the mid to 

lower 50s and lows in the mid-30s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with a mixture

of FEW/SCT high clouds drifting across the region into this

afternoon. The only wrinkle will be early morning through

daybreak ground fog at the WI TAF sites. Any fog is not expected

to be sustained, more intermittent, so have used TEMPO groups

for IFR-or-worse conditions thru daybreak. High cloud coverage

will gradually increase late day into tonight, resulting in high

ceilings over western MN prior to 12z, and this trend will

likely continue eastward into more TAF sites over the next set

of routine TAF issuances. Winds will remain from the SE

throughout, running light/variable overnight then increasing to

around 10kts for the daylight hours into Friday evening.



KMSP...Dry conditions expected throughout this TAF set with

light/variable winds overnight increasing to near 10kts from

shortly after sunrise onward. Ceilings are likely this evening

but chances for any showers tonight into Saturday morning are 

too low to include at this time.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. 

MON-TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Dunleavy

AVIATION...JPC