FXUS63 KMPX 211740 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1240 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record high temperatures today, cooler Sunday - No major weather systems expected over the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 We're well on our way to record high temperatures this afternoon, with most locations already seeing temperatures in the 70s, except over the snowpack of southeast MN & western WI where they still remain warm in the low to mid 60s. temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s everywhere without snow in the ground, & likely will reach 80 across southwest Minnesota where westerly winds will be down- sloping off of the Buffalo Ridge. A cold front does move through this evening however, quickly cooling temepratures into the 50s & 40s this evening & eventually into the 30s by morning. Scattered rain showers are expected behind the frontal passage during the overnight hours but dry air near the surface will keep any rainfall amounts below 0.1" Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front on Sunday, although still close to normal, with daytime highs in the low to mid 40s expected. Temepratures quickly return to above-normal values through midweek though, as strong ridging builds back over the southwest & central CONUS & ensemble guidance suggests temperature anomalies of 10-15 degrees above normal. This ridging pushes the jet stream well north of our area, along with the track of any storm systems, with an area of low pressure skirting along the US-Canada border later in the week the only real upcoming weather system of note. Cooler temperatures do arrive behind this system & into next weekend, but will still feel more spring-like as opposed to winter-like. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Few changes needed to the going TAFs, with timing of the wind shift and fropa today remaining unchanged from the 6z TAFs. Tonight, we will see precipitation getting generated from mid/upper level clouds, but it is questionable if any of that will reach the ground. 6z HRRR did show a bit of an uptick in reflectivity forecast 6z-10z from MSP over to EAU, so did a prob30 for a little -RA at MSP/RNH/EAU. RAP soundings continue to support MVFR cigs overspreading the area after 6z as continued cold advection cools the top of the boundary layer enough to support cloud formation. KMSP...RAP forecast soundings continue to support MVFR cigs arriving around 9z Sunday and continuing through the morning. HRRR shows some precip fighting its way to the ground between 7z and 9z, so added a prob30 group for that potential. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR cigs in mrng. Wind N 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 With the warmest temperatures so far this year forecast today here are the comparisons between record highs and our forecast highs for our primary climate sites. Site | Forecast High | Record High ----------------------------------- MSP | 76 | 76 (1938) STC | 72 | 75 (1911) EAU | 74 | 77 (1911) && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...NDC CLIMATE...NDC