FXUS63 KMPX 210747

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

247 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another mostly cloudy day is on tap to start the week with highs 

struggling to reach 60. 



-Gradual warm up on the way with next chances for precip late

 Wednesday into Thursday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



Radar shows the rain ongoing across the southwestern corner of 

Minnesota is struggling to make it up to the Minnesota River Valley 

early this morning. This is likely due to low/mid level dry air as a 

high sits to the north of the Great Lakes continues to advect drier 

air into the region. Did cut back on PoPs quite a bit for today 

across the CWA, with the exception of our far southern/southwestern 

Minnesota counties. Clouds will persist through the day again with 

highs barely touching 60 for the central and eastern portion of the 

CWA and only getting into the low 50s where precip is expected. 

We'll finally see clouds start to move out overnight, particularly 

for the eastern half of the forecast area. This will allow 

temperatures to tumble into the 40s with a few upper 30s across 

western Wisconsin. Another cool night is expected for Tuesday with 

lows in the lower 40s/upper 30s. There's still a possibility 

we'll need some frost headlines across east central Minnesota 

and western Wisconsin Wednesday morning. 



Temperatures rebound nicely for Wednesday as southerly flow returns 

with the departure of the Great Lakes surface high to the east. With 

this will come a slight increase in moisture ahead of a trough 

moving across the Dakotas. Western Minnesota still has the best shot 

at seeing some rain overnight into early Thursday, but the eastward 

extent is still uncertain as the feature washes out. As mentioned in 

the previous discussion, there's decent spread in the guidance 

beyond Thursday. Overall, warmer temperatures still seem likely 

through the weekend (70s) with precip chances increasing area wide 

by the end of the forecast period.  



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



Radar shows showers in far southwestern Minnesota are struggling

to make it further north early this morning, likely due to dry

air in the mid levels. Biggest change for this TAF set was to

remove/decrease -SHRA mentions for KRWF/KMKT. Cigs are

borderline VFR/MVFR, thinking solid MVFR cigs will arrive

mid/late morning for these sites. KMKT may bounce around in the

near term, so added a TEMPO for this. Elsewhere, low end VFR

conditions should prevail through the period. Winds are

generally easterly at 10kts or less.



KMSP...Lowered cigs to MVFR for a few hours late this morning

into early afternoon. As mentioned above, it'll be riding that

annoying VFR/MVFR line, but felt confident enough to include the

MVFR in the prevailing group. -SHRA will remain well to the

south.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. 

WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

THU...VFR, chc AM -SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Dye

AVIATION...Dye