FXUS63 KMPX 202342

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

642 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures over the next week with record highs

  possible on Saturday.



- No major systems over the next week with only a few chances

  for light precipitation.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



With a large ridge overhead and even the jet stream to our north 

today into Saturday will see significantly warmer than normal 

air move into the Upper Midwest. This will allow for 

temperatures on Saturday to rise into temperature more typical 

of early June than late March. Check out the climate section 

below for how likely we are to see records broken. This warmth 

comes to an end as the jet stream moves back to the south on 

Sunday. This shift will bring temperatures down closer to normal

with highs in the 40s (normals in the lower 40s). Temperatures 

then slowing warm throughout middle of the week under a zonal 

flow. Still uncertain how much we warm by the middle of the week

with about a 20 degree spread between the NBM25 and NBM75 for 

highs. This is due to a spread in the ensemble members and 

systems in how far north the next ridge gets. Behind this 

another cool down as the jet stream digs farther south, but only

to near normal again by the end of the week.



On the precipitation front there are not many chances as these 

air masses move through the Upper Midwest as moisture remains a 

challenge. The period of high confidence in moisture will be 

Saturday morning which could contribute to some radiation fog 

dependent on how the winds end up. Early Sunday morning could 

see a chance for some light precipitation but there is a large 

spread between systems with the ENS fairly confident, but the 

GEFS and GEPS staying dry. They are all more confident more into

northeast Minnesota and the spread is in how far south it 

extends. This makes sense as the main area of forcing is farther

north such that it will be harder to get as much down south. 

Then we move into early week high pressure before some more 

light chances midweek. Still a lot of spread midweek as for how 

much this impacts us. This will depend on how the trough and jet

streak evolve as there remains significant spread here within 

ensemble members and systems, just as mentioned for temperatures

above. As both of these precipitation chances come with air 

mass changes from warmer to cold it could very well see some 

snow mix in, especially on the back end of either event.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout this

duration. Only passing high clouds of varying coverage are

expected. Winds will be the only tricky aspect, timing the shift

with the passage of a weak cold front drifting across the region

tomorrow.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind N 10-15 kts. 

MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10 kts.

TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-15 kts.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



With the warmest temperatures so far this year forecast on

Saturday, March 21 here are the comparisons between record highs

and our forecast highs for our primary climate sites.



Site | Forecast High | Record High

----------------------------------- 

MSP  |       76       |  76 (1938)  

STC  |       72       |  75 (1911)

EAU  |       73       |  77 (1911)



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...NDC

AVIATION...JPC

CLIMATE...NDC