FXUS63 KMPX 201747

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few showers possible across southern Minnesota Sunday, then

  better chance for widespread rain Tuesday. 



- Below normal temperatures continue through next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Skies have cleared following yesterday's severe thunderstorms.

Some diurnal CU will develop late morning and some weak SBCAPE 

could materialize across northern WI in the afternoon. Can't 

rule out some low-topped showers or weak thunderstorms northeast

of Rice Lake and Eau Claire during peak heating, so maintained 

the 20 PoPs. The next system to watch will emerge over the 

central Plains today. A warm front and rich moisture will be in 

place across NE/KS/northern MO which will spark heavy rain 

producing clusters of thunderstorms through tonight. Much of 

this activity will remain well to the south, but enough moisture

may advect north into far southern MN and eastern SD to support

a few showers Sunday. 



A system traversing east along the U.S./Canadian border Monday

will bring some increasing moisture northward by Tuesday,

although it won't be particularly impressive. A cold front will

pass through during the afternoon likely bringing a round of 

showers. Very poor mid level lapse rates and drier air in the

boundary layer will lead to little CAPE and a meager thunder 

threat. The low will sink southeast along the Mississippi River

to southern Wisconsin Wednesday. Wrap around showers and perhaps

a thunderstorm may continue into Wednesday evening. Troughing 

with cool temperatures aloft and pwats remaining around an inch 

and a quarter could bring a few diurnal showers through the rest

of the work week. The trough will also keep surface temperatures

below average.



By next weekend, there are signs of ridging trying to build 

back to the Upper Midwest with a potentially more active pattern

developing, along with temperatures returning closer to normal.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



VFR. Scattered diurnal cu will linger through this 

evening. NNW'ly winds mainly between 8-12kts with mostly sub-18kt 

gusts can be expected this afternoon. Winds will then decrease 

to light and variable tonight then shifting east early Sunday

between 5-10kts.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ 

MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts.

TUE... VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind SSW at 5-10 kts

WED... VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW at 5-10 kts



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Borghoff

AVIATION...Dunleavy