FXUS63 KMPX 201722 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures well above normal through Saturday. - Quiet weather expected throughout the next week, except for a chance for light isolated rain showers along a cold front Sunday PM. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Not much going on early this morning of what is appearing on satellite or the radar other than a few areas of patchy dense fog across portions of central MN. Visibilities within this region could briefly fall below 1/4 mile. Luckily, the fog is not expected to last long this morning as a dry cold front moves in from the north through the first half of today and should mix out any fog rather quickly. The impact from this cold front wont be felt much at the surface as forecast highs will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s with a mix of clouds and sun. Any areas that have any snow left will continue to melt off. Dew points today will be on the rise through the day and by tonight, another round of widespread dense fog could be develop. As we head into this weekend, a very anomalous h850 ridge builds over the western CONUS. This airmass is trending so warm that considering forecast highs for March, will be approximately 4 std deviations above climatology for that part of the country. With the ridge being so strong, it is expected that we will also receive much warmer air for Saturday. Similar to today's forecast, have pushed forecast highs towards the NBM 75th percentile (65-75 degrees) which places us just shy of record values. Across southwestern MN, a few sites could even reach 80 degrees. So its not out of the realm of possibility that a few sites could reach or perhaps break a new high temperatures. By Saturday night into Sunday, low pressure moves through and brings our next rainfall potential. Looking at the 24-hr QPF amounts from both the EPS and GEFS, both agree that light rainfall chances appear to be trending northeastward. However, this scenario appears to be another high PoP/low QPF scenario where the EPS is going much more aggressive in coverage as compared to the GEFS. For now, felt that maintaining slight PoP mentions for most areas except for southwestern and southern MN but likely increases to PoPs may be needed. Temperatures on Sunday will be noticeably cooler with highs only reaching the low to mid 40s. The remainder of the forecast period remains tranquil other than a slight chance of precip on Tuesday and then again Wednesday night into Thursday. Forecast highs temperatures in this time period will range mostly near- normal. Aside from a quieter weather pattern in the extended forecast, We will need to keep our eye on a potential system that moves across the northern plains in early April. Obviously lots can change between now and then but depending on the track of this surface low, enough cold air could exist to bring another shot at some snow potential. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 With the morning stratus that was over many of the eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin terminals finally dissipating, VFR is expected for the rest of the day today. For most terminals, EAU as the exception, the snowpack has melted. This lowers the chances for morning snowmelt fog. There could still be some more patchy fog in the morning, but with significantly less snow this is less likely. Overall the main aviation impact will be shifting winds. Current northerly winds will shift to the south tonight and then to the west tomorrow. Our warm day tomorrow will help mix stronger winds to the surface so some gusts up in the 25 to 35 mph range possible in western Minnesota Saturday afternoon into evening. The highest winds are likely to be to be after the end of the TAF period though and are not in this set of TAFs. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind N 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-15 kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 With the warmest temperatures so far this year forecast on Saturday, March 21 here are the comparisons between record highs and our forecast highs for our primary climate sites. Site | Forecast High | Record High ----------------------------------- MSP | 76 | 76 (1938) STC | 72 | 75 (1911) EAU | 73 | 77 (1911) && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...NDC CLIMATE...NDC