FXUS63 KMPX 200631 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 131 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures well above normal through Saturday. - Snow melt will continue. Most locations should lose their snow cover over the next 24 to 48 hours. - Quiet weather expected throughout the next week, except for a chance for light isolated rain showers along a cold front Sunday PM. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Another pleasant mid-March day has played out across the region. Lingering areas of dense fog were slow to burn off along the Minnesota River valley this morning yet there hasn't been a significant impact on temperatures so far. Highs have been increased to match observational trends & should end up in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the Twin Cities, E MN, and W WI. The one area to watch is our W MN counties that are a trailing behind the forecast due to that lingering fog... but mid 50s are already present just SW of the fog bank. Winds turn to the SE and increase this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will give way to broken mid-level deck building in from the Dakotas late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures cool this evening and lows will be in the 30s. Our fog chances tonight into Friday are much less than they were this morning. Guidance keeps a light wind present across the region and cloud cover should prevent temperatures from cooling down to the Td. This present a less favorable environment for fog development Friday morning. Friday & Saturday will continue to warm. Our snow pack will continue to melt and lose influence over the temperatures. Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s but it will likely remain mostly cloudy. Saturday will be the peak of the warm up as a thermal ridge moves through during the daytime. There is higher confidence than yesterday given the melt rate of our snow pack & better agreement among guidance for our high temperatures to push well into the 60s on Saturday. Highs should top out near 70 in the Twin Cities while mid to upper 70s are possible in SW MN. The NBM has done a reasonable job "catching up" to the warmer trend on Saturday. The 925mb temperatures forecast on Saturday continue to impress with values in the +18 to +22C range on the ECMWF. That's big time warmth and it wouldn't shock me to see temperatures push 80 in extreme S/SW MN Saturday afternoon. Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday behind a cold front. Guidance highlights a slight chance of showers that are associated with the frontal passage Sunday. Any precipitation should be light based on forecast soundings showing rather meager forcing tied to it. Looking ahead to next week, we'll remain dry with seasonable temperatures. The culprit continues to be the impressive upper level ridge over the SW CONUS. This ridging will dominate the pattern across the western half of the country through next week. This will keep the storm track off to our north and our temperatures rather pleasant. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 For the rest of tonight, a dry cold front will be pushing across the area. The main influence of the front is that as winds turn to the northwest in its wake, we've seen the drier air moving in knock back the fog, so the patch of fog currently over central MN is not expected to make it to sunrise. The drier air and cloud cover will help keep fog pretty much a non- issue through this morning. We'll have northwest winds and mostly sunny skies today. For this evening, warm advection will be returning, with winds heading toward the southeast by the end of the period, with an altocu field moving in as well. Overall, a pretty quiet period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Slgt chc -SHRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts. SUN...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind N 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...MPG