FXUS63 KMPX 191119

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

619 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dense fog will linger through mid to late morning. A few weak 

showers and drizzle are possible this afternoon and evening.



- Dry and quiet weather continues this week, with a chance for

  showers Friday. Quiet weather continues with cooler

  temperatures this weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



In stark contrast to the last few nights, there is relatively quiet 

weather across the MPX CWA with the primary concern being areas of 

dense fog that have developed due to elevated dew points from all 

the rain we have received over the last few days. The fog is 

thickest in southern Minnesota with low level clouds in western WI 

resulting in patchier fog and the remnants of what were a few 

showers moving across western Minnesota also resulting in slightly 

higher visibility. There is a Dense Fog Advisory active across 

southern Minnesota through 9am, however it may need to be expanded 

as the dew point depression across most of the area is only a few 

degrees at most and the morning inversion will only strengthen until 

we get a couple of hours past sunrise. Forecast soundings from the 

RAP/HRRR show the fog potential lingering through at least 9am 

before rising temperatures will help dissipate the fog, as dew 

points begin to slowly drop for the rest of the day. Northwest flow 

over the lingering higher dew points could result in a few showers 

during the afternoon and evening, however the vast majority of the 

region will be dry today with dry conditions expected to continue 

for the rest of the week.



Surface high pressure and subsidence will ride the edge of an upper 

level ridge, bringing mostly clear skies and pleasant weather to the 

region through most of the week with our only chance for showers 

after today arriving on Friday via a cold front stretching 

southwards from a surface low over Hudson Bay. This surface low is 

being forced ahead of an upper level occlusion and longwave trough 

which should stay far enough north to keep the majority of the 

forcing away from the area. This coupled with a lack of moisture due 

to the lower dew points and limited access to a good moisture source 

will result in isolated to scattered showers but limited potential 

beyond this. The main thing that could potentially throw a wrench 

into things is the rate of evapotranspiration due to the maturity of 

vegetation at this point in August, however the lack of significant 

heat should also quell this risk somewhat. As the upper level trough 

shifts eastwards, broad northerly flow will stack across the area at 

all levels of the troposphere, resulting in falling temperatures and 

highs in the low 70s by next weekend. There is even a chance that a 

significant portion of the area struggles to see a high of 70 on 

Sunday, which seems like a rarity for the first weekend of the State 

Fair (it hasn't happened in August for the State Fair since

2018).



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



The first few hours of the TAF will have intermittent MVFR/IFR

with fog, improving after 14z across the area. IFR/MVFR cigs

will then lift towards VFR by 18z with FEW250 to SKC across the

area afterwards. Another round of fog is possible after 09z,

however dew points will be lower such that the spread of dense

fog should be lower than this morning.



KMSP...The main uncertainty is how long MVFR cigs hang around,

with the clouds moving through as of 11z having been breaking up

the low level MVFR at other locations. Regardless, by 18z we

should be VFR with no concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR, chc MVFR/BR early. Wind S 5kts.

FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW5-10kts.

SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Blue 

     Earth-Brown-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-

     Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-

     Morrison-Nicollet-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-

     Steele-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.

WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron-

     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TDH

AVIATION...TDH