FXUS63 KMPX 190356 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1056 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much welcomed return of dry weather following the passage of a cold front. - Clear skies, light winds, and the recent rainfall will promote the potential for fog each of the next few nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Improvements are in sight this afternoon, as the last round of heavy rain has departed to the south and east. We'll keep a slight chance for an isolated shower or two across eastern MN/western WI in the short term, though those chances will cease following the ongoing cold frontal passage. It'll take some more time to completely lose the cloud cover, however each passing hour reveals a few more peeks of sunshine through the cloud deck. Opted to knock high temperatures down a few degrees across eastern MN/western WI given the limited sunshine to this point. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s across south/west MN to the upper 70s east of I-35 and north of I-94. A quiet and mild night is ahead, with lows in the 60s to lower 70s. The biggest question will be how quickly do skies clear, as the the combination of clearing skies, light winds, and the recent rainfall will promote the development of fog across much of the region. Have followed the trend from the overnight shift and included at least patchy fog in the grids tonight, Tuesday night, & Wednesday night. Large scale amplification of a ~590s dm ridge over the Four Corners region will push the active storm track north into southern Canada this week. Surface high pressure/subsidence across the Upper Midwest will work to keep things mostly dry. We cannot rule out a pop-up shower or two tomorrow afternoon, however confidence in this was too low to include a PoP. Despite upper height rises, the forecast position of the surface high will aim to keep local temperatures in check. Latest NBM features daily highs generally in the lower 80s each day through Thursday afternoon. Will likely still feel a bit humid, with dew points in the 60s (to near 70 along the MN River) through midweek. Guidance swings a jetstreak across southern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop in response across over Manitoba. A cold front extending south from the surface low is progged to move through the region Thursday night into Friday. The system should have some Pacific influenced moisture to work with, though dry antecedent conditions may limit just how widespread the eventual precipition footprint is. For now, like the highest PoPs across west central MN Thursday evening, which is reflected by 40-60% chances in the last NBM. Those PoPs decrease to 20-30% through early Friday across southeastern MN/western WI. This cold frontal passage signals the only notable precipitation chance over the next 7-days (We'll take that!). Medium to long range guidance remains in strong agreement that an expansive cooler Canadian airmass will dominate the forecast next weekend. Under the influence of ~1020s mb high pressure we can expect sunny skies, cooler highs in the low to mid 70s, and more comfortable levels of humidity. This sets the stage for one of the nicest weather weekends of the year just in time for the Minnesota State Fair! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Only site to have precipitation concerns is AXN with the decaying cluster of SHRA/TSRA from NW MN. Have maintained a couple hours of precipitation at initialization but not expecting much from this area of precip. Otherwise, conditions are looking rather good for fog development overnight with plenty of surface moisture trapped under the nightly inversion along with winds going calm. Have indicated prevailing MVFR with TEMPO drops to IFR but conditions worse than IFR along with a longer duration are each very possible near and through sunrise. Conditions will return to VFR by late morning and remain as such through Tuesday evening. KMSP...MSP will not be immune from the ground fog development overnight, with MVFR conditions likely by around 09z and a good shot at some duration of IFR-or-worse conditions through the morning push. Conditions will improve to VFR thereafter. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind E 5kts. THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Chance -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus AVIATION...JPC