FXUS63 KMPX 071102

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

602 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Very cool temperatures today will go on a warming trend through 

  the upcoming weekend.



- Chances for rain Wednesday & Thursday, but no significant

  precipitation accumulation the next 7 days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Surface analysis early this morning depicts quite the elongated

cold front emanating from a weak low pressure center over 

central WI, dipping SW into IA/NE then back W and NW over SD and

MT. Aloft, a highly meridional pattern exists between a deep 

trough axis aligned along the Mississippi River and a sharp 

trough axis from southern Cali northward to Alberta province. 

High pressure centered over central Canada extends southward 

into the Northern Plains, helping push the cold front away from 

the Upper Midwest for today.



Although plenty of sunshine is again expected for today,

temperatures will be noticeably colder than the above-normal 

values experienced across the area yesterday. Highs today will 

run from the mid 30s to lower 40s, at least 10 degrees below 

normal area-wide, owing to the influence of the southward-

sagging modified arctic high pressure airmass and northerly 

flow aloft. All that said, today will be the coldest day in this

forecast.



A warming trend will commence from tomorrow onward as the

western ridge, while gradually flattening, slides eastward 

through midweek. On the leading fringes of the ridge, a weak 

low pressure area will come off the central Rockies Tuesday 

night into Wednesday, sliding into NE then IA. Pacific moisture 

associated with the flow aloft will ride atop the ridge and into

the central CONUS, having modest interaction with the 

aforementioned low, bringing isolated/scattered rain showers to 

the WFO MPX coverage area Wednesday-Thursday. QPF will be rather

light, generally 0.10" of rain or less, though some heavier 

splotches of rain may occur over western WI during the affected 

timeframe. 



This system will shift into the Ohio Valley by Thursday, while

an even sharper and more expansive ridge takes hold over the 

western CONUS. This ridge axis is expected to maintain its shape

and influence while is slides eastward for the end of the week 

through the upcoming weekend. This will mean a continued 

increase in temperatures along with very few chances for 

precipitation beyond Wednesday. While highs remain in the 50s 

Wednesday-Friday, highs will go on a significant jump for the 

weekend, reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



VFR conditions are expected at all terminals the entire period. 

The exception will be some low VFR to high MVFR stratus across

western Wisconsin sites. I've added a BKN040 group to RNH/EAU

and a TEMPO at EAU for 6SM -SN through 14Z. Otherwise, mostly 

clear skies will remain afterwards. Winds will remain northerly 

through Monday afternoon with sustained values near 10 knots and

gusts near 20 knots. Winds become light/variable Monday 

evening.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. 

WED...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE at 10-15 kts.

THU...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JPC

AVIATION...BPH