FXUS63 KMPX 060357

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1057 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cool temperatures the next few days, with Monday being the coldest 

  as highs struggle to reach 40 degrees.



- Warmer temperatures (50s/60s) arrive Wednesday into next weekend.

 

- Chance for rain Wednesday into Thursday, but no significant

  precipitation accumulation the next 7 days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025



Today through Monday Night...Early morning satellite imagery 

revealed clear skies across the region as the clouds that were 

across the MN/WI border, progressed eastward. Despite the abundant 

sunshine, temperatures will still remain about 5 to 10 degrees below 

the seasonal average for early April, with highs only in the low to 

mid 40s today. On Sunday, slightly warm air will allow highs to 

reach the upper 40s to low 50s, but and upper level wave will drive 

a cold front through Sunday night and bring breezy north winds and 

cooler air. Areas across western Wisconsin will be closer to the 

upper level forcing for ascent, and HiRes models support scattered 

snow showers, so have continued with small chances for 

precipitation. Expect a cool and brisk day on Monday, with north 

winds gusts of 20 to 25 mph, and afternoon highs struggling to reach 

40 degrees. Winds will decrease during the afternoon and evening as 

the pressure gradient weakens. On Monday night the surface high will 

be centered over Wisconsin, and this will set the stage for the 

coldest night of the week, with lows in the teens to lower 20s.



Tuesday through Saturday...Warm air will gradually move across the 

region, with temperatures returning above normal for the latter half 

of the week. On Tuesday, we'll start to see some southerly winds and 

return flow as the surface high moves eastward. Temperatures will 

still remain slightly below normal, but light winds and mostly sunny 

skies will make it feel much more comfortable as compared to earlier 

in the week. 



On Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be warmer, but there 

will also be increased clouds and chances for rain as zonal flow 

brings and upper level wave across the Midwest. There is uncertainty 

in the exact track of this wave, which leads to uncertainty in the 

forecast. We're getting the point of the year where clouds and rain 

will keep temperatures cooler than clear skies and sun, so there is 

a wide range in the temperature forecast for Wednesday and beyond, 

as seen in the large spread between the ensemble members. For now, 

continued with the blended forecast which bring chances for rain (20 

to 30%) and highs in the 50s to low 60s. If the guidance converges 

on storm track across Minnesota and Wisconsin, expect rainfall 

chances to increase, and forecast temperatures to decrease. Looking 

ahead, upper level ridging builds over the central CONUS in the wake 

of this system, which suggests higher confidence in more spring-like 

temperatures Friday and into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025



VFR conditions are expected the entire period. However, broken

clouds near 5000 feet are likely across eastern MN and western

WI Sunday evening as a frontal passage occurs. Light westerly to

variable winds tonight strengthen and turn northwesterly after

sunrise Sunday morning. Winds could gust to 20 knots during the

afternoon. Winds become northerly Sunday evening after the

frontal passage.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. Wind N 10G20 kts. 

TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. 

WED...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE at 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JRB

AVIATION...CTGMPX-177930