FXUS63 KMPX 042318

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

618 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost/freeze 

  concerns throughout the week.



- Elevated fire weather conditions will be present throughout 

  the week, mainly due to low dew points/relative humidity. 

  Winds will generally be the limiting factor.



- Small chance for showers Thursday, otherwise dry weather

  expected.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Breezy winds are the primary driver behind the local forecast today 

thanks to efficient mixing and an inverted V lower level profile 

promoting winds mixing down from aloft. Gusts heading into the early 

afternoon are ranging from low to mid 20s in western Wisconsin to 

30mph in western Minnesota. Dew points generally range in the 30s 

with relative humidity in the 40s this afternoon as temperatures 

reach the mid to upper 60s in southern Minnesota tapering to the 

upper 50s in central Minnesota. The breezy winds coupled with RH int 

the 40s is leading to elevated but not Red Flag fire weather 

conditions this afternoon, however fires may still spread quickly 

due to the strength of the winds. The concern overnight transitions 

to frost/freeze as skies are expected to clear out later today, 

allowing for temperatures to fall below freezing in portions of 

central Minnesota and remain in the mid 30s across southern 

Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Frost/freeze headlines are 

possible, however it would be a good idea to bring any sensitive 

plants inside regardless as the crux of the forecast will end up 

being whether we have few/scattered cloud cover or clearer, which 

still has some lingering uncertainty. Winds are expected to weaken 

once we lose daylight, with weaker gusts returning tomorrow.



The forecast for the remainder of the week largely remains the same 

with the primary concern rotating between partially elevated fire 

weather conditions during the day due to low relative humidity and 

marginally breezy winds, becoming frost/freeze overnight as winds 

weaken and temperatures fall into the 30s. Dew points will remain in 

the 20s and 30s throughout the week with a lack of any significant 

moisture advection into the region, as our large scale pattern 

remains a broad upper level trough bringing northwesterly flow 

suppressing the southern stream jet and any Gulf moisture to the 

south. Any of the 7 day QPF maps from various model guidance will 

paint a similar picture, with all of the rainfall focused over the 

SE US and next to nothing for the northern plains/Great Lakes. The 

longer range pattern shows hints that the upper level pattern will 

finally break down in a couple weeks, which would open the door for 

a more active pattern. Temperatures will be coolest this week, 

especially overnight, with a general trend towards near normal 

temperatures as the upper level pattern shifts towards the middle of 

the month.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Mid level clouds and northwest winds will decrease after 

sunset, then increase again late Tuesday morning. 



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning 

     for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Mille Lacs-

     Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TDH

AVIATION...Borghoff