FXUS63 KMPX 041706

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1206 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers with gusty winds expected as a cold front moves 

  through this morning.



- Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s today and Wednesday 

  followed by a climb back into the 80s through the weekend. 



- The weekend may feature precipitation chances, however

  considerable uncertainty exists at this time.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT FEW DAYS...The main weather feature of 

interest is a cold front advancing eastward across the area early 

this morning. The front has produced scattered showers and isolated 

thunderstorms across western and central MN. Occasional wind gusts 

between 35-45mph have been observed with the frontal passage as 

winds shift out of the northwest. As expected, the broken line of 

showers and thunderstorms has weakened with eastward movement, which 

is forecast to continue this morning. We'll keep scattered shower 

chances around through the first couple of hours after daybreak 

across southeastern MN and western WI. A chance of showers remains 

along the MN/IA border this afternoon as the front moves south.

Cooler, more comfortable air arrives as a region of high pressure 

and drier weather builds into the Upper Midwest. Afternoon highs run 

below normal, in the 70s, the next couple of days.



WARMING UP LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...Beginning Thursday 

highs will return to the lower 80s and continue warming through the 

weekend. However, the degree of warmth is somewhat uncertain due to 

the upper-level pattern. By Friday, the Upper Midwest will be 

positioned within a channel of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, 

located between an upper-low over central Canada and an expansive 

ridge over the desert southwest. Guidance brings a cold front 

through the region Friday, which may produce scattered precipitation 

chances. As the weekend progresses, the northwesterly flow pattern 

will become more westerly/zonal around the ridge, which may support 

additional precipitation chances, though confidence in timing and 

coverage is low at this time. This is because there are differences 

across the ensemble membership with regards to the flattening of the 

ridge and northward expansion of mid-level warm air over the 

weekend. For now, we'll roll with highs in the mid 80s Saturday & 

Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



VFR conditions expected at all terminals the entire period with

broken mid-level clouds over southern MN and into western WI. A

diurnal cumulus field near 3000 feet is in the process of 

developing over western and central MN and should spread east in

WI this afternoon. The cumulus field will dissipate this 

evening and mid-level clouds will clear overnight from west to 

east. West-northwesterly winds near of 5-10 knots will slow to 

light/variable tonight. Winds increase out of the southwest to 

5-10 knots over MN during Wednesday morning.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. 

FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.

SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Strus

AVIATION...CTG