FXUS63 KMPX 040510 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1210 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expecting a mostly dry cold frontal passage on Monday with low (<20%) chances for rain. - Cooler temperatures mid week behind the front with frost/freeze each morning until a late week warm up. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 Today's clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm quickly. This has dropped RHs and allow for mixing that has increased winds. These conditions will provide for elevated fire weather mainly across western Minnesota this afternoon. As stated in the past discussion this risk is elevated, and not higher, as the green up is getting pretty far along which limits the availability of fuels for fire. Warm air advection overnight should limit the radiational cooling and keep lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will see a cold frontal passage that will be the main driver of the weather pattern for this next week. Persistent low level dry air will be the main impediment to rain on Monday. High resolution soundings show a stout dry layer in the lower atmosphere, which means virga will be more likely than rain at the surface. Currently it looks more like what we saw on Saturday evening with maybe just a few drops making it through. The HREF PMM has no QPF for us and even the model max only has very light QPF, mainly in central Minnesota. Areas to our north across northern Minnesota and to our south across Iowa have better chance for rain due to greater low level saturation as the front transits across those areas. Cold air advection behind Monday's front and generally high surface pressure moving in will make the main impact for the remainder of the week temperatures. Cool morning temperatures will favor frost Tuesday to Thursday mornings. The coldest morning currently looks to be Wednesday morning when a more widespread freeze is possible. By late week the pattern shifts to more neutral temperatures before warm air advection looks to return next weekend. Long range models suggest that this week's cool down will likely be the end of the frost season with warmer temperatures favored for the rest of the month. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 VFR conditions are expected the entire period. Mid to high clouds will move overhead from the northwest during tonight. Then, a broken diurnal cumulus field near 8000 feet should develop by early Monday afternoon and last through the evening before cigs lift again. Southwesterly winds will increase during tonight with gusts approaching 20 knots. West-southwesterly LLWS of 45-50 knots is expected at all terminals late tonight through about sunrise as a LLJ moves overhead. A cold front sweeps through during Monday morning turning winds to northwesterly for the remainder of the period. Winds will increase after the front, reaching 15-20 knots sustained with gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds slow to 5-10 knots during Monday evening. KMSP...Maintained west-southwesterly LLWS of 50 knots from 10-13z Monday. Northwesterly winds will reach 15-20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots during Monday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...CTG