FXUS63 KMPX 032321

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

521 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A slight chance of light snow early Wednesday morning. Accumulations

  of a less than an inch expected.



- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A

  slight cool down through the weekend before continued above

  normal temperatures next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Mostly sunny skies will continue for most of us for the remainder of 

this afternoon. Temperatures currently ranging in the teens and 

perhaps for few 20s across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. 

Across the western CONUS, upper-level ridging remains the dominant 

feature. The eastern periphery of this ridge is expected to move in 

across the upper plains tonight. Embedded within this ridge, is a 

weak mid-level wave that has already began producing cloud cover 

across the Dakotas and now Minnesota this afternoon. Forecast 

soundings do hint that there is some potential for some flurries to 

develop. First, across western MN tonight, then reaching the I-35 

corridor around sunrise tomorrow, then wrapping up across 

western WI by noon. Snow accumulations as of now continue to 

look best across portions of western MN between a trace to a few

tenths of an inch. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly 

warmer than today and range in the 20s. 



Ridging to our west continues eastward Thursday. The jetstream

above the northern plains only strengthens and brings another 

embedded wave during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. This 

time, the track of this wave looks to cross over Lake Superior 

and Wisconsin. Therefore, have increased PoPs to "chance" 

categories across western Wisconsin for that timeframe for a 

chance of snow showers and perhaps another shot at a trace to a 

tenth of an inch of snow. As for temps, the blow torch is set to

high in this case. Most sites will range in the mid to upper 

30s and even perhaps mid-40s across southwestern Minnesota. 



By early this weekend, upper-level troughing develops over the 

Hudson Bay area and will send a cold front briefly over the northern 

plains. With the increase of CAA from the north, did nudge up wind 

gusts Friday night slightly between 20 to 30 mph. The most potent 

cold air looks to impact more so the eastern CONUS but we still can 

expect with highs slightly cooler in the 20s on Saturday. 

Southwestern MN appears to be displaced enough to where their highs 

should remain in the mid-30s or warmer. The forecast for Sunday into 

early next week continues to look overall warm and quiet with 

forecast highs on running well above-normal for this time of

year. 



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



High clouds have moved in this evening and ceilings will lower

for all terminals tonight into the morning. The lowest ceilings

will be over western Minnesota where the snow chances are the

highest. Here snow should be flurries with little to no

accumulation or visibility impact. Ceilings will fall into MVFR,

possibly high IFR at AXN, as the snow moves in tonight. Further

east into central Minnesota higher, but still MVFR ceilings

expected tomorrow. Ceilings to remain low until they lift back to VFR

tomorrow night.



KMSP...Chance of flurries in the morning with little to no

impact to flight category and little to no accumulation.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts. 

FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. 

SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Dunleavy

AVIATION...NDC