FXUS63 KMKX 250832 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers should push east southeast across the area today. - A short warm up to just above normal temperatures is expected on Sunday, then back to near normal values by Tuesday. Some precipitation chances remain toward the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Today through Sunday: A potent 500 mb shortwave trough to the northwest of the area will shift southeast and weaken somewhat through the area today. The area of showers associated with the differential CVA and some low level frontogenesis response should become more isolated to scattered as they shift through the area, as dry air in the low levels counteracts the upward vertical motion. Kept highest PoPs of 40 to 50 percent in the western parts of the area this morning, with lower 20 to 30 percent values to the east. Any precipitation will be quite light with the dry low levels to overcome. The incoming clouds and shower activity should limit highs to the lower 50s over most of the area. High pressure will continue to move east of the region tonight into Sunday, with east southeast winds lingering. This should bring dry conditions into the area, with skies becoming mostly clear. Lows tonight in the middle to upper 30s inland with 40s lakeside are forecast, with milder highs Sunday in the lower 60s west with middle to upper 50s closer to Lake Michigan. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Sunday night through Friday: High pressure centered over northern Quebec will continue to dominate the weather pattern across southern Wisconsin through Sunday night and into Monday, keeping east southeasterly winds dominating and dry conditions prevailing. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Wyoming Rockies on Monday, increasing these east southeasterly winds across southern Wisconsin into Monday afternoon. Low pressure propagates eastward into Monday night, but high pressure remains firm across the region. Models continue to trend toward dry conditions through Monday night and even into Tuesday. Latest models are even trending toward very little rain across Wisconsin, as the primary shortwave resulting from the aforementioned surface low propagates along the southwestern edges of the Quebec high pressure system Wednesday into Thursday. This will also shift winds to become more northerly. Still, a few weaker shortwaves may propagate just far enough eastward to produce scattered showers across the area Tuesday into Thursday (15 to 30 percent chances). MH && .AVIATION... Issued 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 An area of isolated to scattered showers should shift through the area today, with dry air in the low levels keeping ceilings generally above 6000 to 7000 feet AGL. Light southeast winds are expected today as well. High pressure will continue to move east of the region tonight into Sunday, with east southeast winds lingering. This should bring dry conditions into the area, with ceilings dissipating and skies becoming mostly clear. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure around 30.4 inches will continue to move east of the region today and tonight, with southwest to south winds over the north half of the lake and southeast to east winds to the south. The high will move into southeast Canada into early next week, strengthening to around 30.6 inches. Meanwhile, weak low pressure around 29.8 inches will pass to the southwest of Lake Michigan, bringing a period of gusty east to southeast winds Sunday into Tuesday, becoming more east to northeast by Wednesday. Southeast to east wind gusts to 30 knots are expected at times Monday night into Wednesday, mainly over the southern half of the lake. This will help bring building waves to the western shore of Lake Michigan. In addition, winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels Sunday into Thursday for the nearshore waters. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee