FXUS63 KMKX 250253 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 953 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A gradual warm up to just above normal temperatures is expected early next week, then back to near normal values by the middle of next week. - A 20-30 percent chance of light rain and rain showers Saturday. Models are trending drier for early to mid-week next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 954 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Temperatures continue to slowly fall toward the expected lows between 30 and 32 degrees tonight. Cloud cover will increase late tonight and prevent temperatures from falling farther. A shortwave currently over central Minnesota propagating southeastward is expected to slowly weaken and produce primarily scattered showers across southern Wisconsin. Continue to think that 20-30% chance PoPs remain reasonable, as a pronounced dry slot in the mid levels will create quite a bit of evaporation before showers can reach the ground. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Tonight through Saturday: High pressure overhead this afternoon will slide eastward tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching shortwave. Mostly clear skies and light winds will persist into tonight under the influence of the high. This will allow for somewhat below normal temps again tonight, with temps dropping into the low to mid 30s most places. The shortwave will move through during the day Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies expected much of the day. There is a chance for a few showers with the wave, but the low levels may struggle to saturate enough for much rain to hit the ground. Thus kept precip chances in the 20-30% range for now. The best chance for a few showers is expected along/north of I-94 given a better signal for low level moisture. Lowered Saturday high temps a degree or two from the previous forecast given the increasing confidence in a mostly cloudy day along with the potential for a little rain. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Sunday through Friday: High pressure will park across southeast Canada and the northeast United States early next week, eventually merging with a high that will move in from the west by mid-week. The latest round of deterministic model solutions have low pressure sliding by to the southwest of Wisconsin Tuesday into Wednesday, with the better forcing and moisture remaining out of the forecast area. This combined with the influence of high pressure early to mid-week has resulted in a forecast that is trending drier for much of next week. This is reflective in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble probs as well, with the 60% + chances for measurable rain over a 24 hour period sliding by to the southwest of the forecast area Tue/Wed. Other than high temps pushing or reaching 60 on Sunday, highs are expected to remain in the 50s this weekend through next week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 954 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout tonight and Saturday. High cloud bases around 7000 ft are expected to move in late tonight into Saturday morning, with isolated to scattered showers producing lower ceilings around 5000 ft during the morning to afternoon hours before ending. Light and variable to calm winds tonight will shift to become southeasterly into Saturday, remaining light and southeasterly through Saturday night. MH && .MARINE... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 High pressure of 30.3 inches centered over Wisconsin this afternoon will slide eastward and become centered over the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday night, while strengthening a bit to 30.4 inches. Light northwest winds today will become light south to southeast tonight into Saturday as the highpushes eastward. The high will move into southeast Canada early next week, while strengthening a little more to around 30.6 inches. Meanwhile, weak low pressure will pass to the southwest, causing the pressure gradient to tighten across lake Michigan. Thus a period of breezy east to southeast winds is expected Sunday into at least mid-week. Winds and waves will likely hit Small Craft Advisory levels at times during this period. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee