FXUS63 KMKX 191955 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 255 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overall drier and less humid through the rest of the week. - Fog is expected inland from Lake Michigan tonight. Areas near and west of Madison may see some dense fog. - Chance for a few isolated to scattered sprinkles area-wide through Wednesday afternoon. - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from 7am Wednesday to 4am Thursday for waves of 3 to 6 feet and dangerous currents. It is advised to stay away from piers and breakwalls during this time, and avoid swimming at Lake Michigan beaches during this time period. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Tonight through Wednesday night: Areas of stratocu will persist into tonight, generally becoming a bit more scattered with time. Models seem to suggest a weakening inverted trough will sink south across the state tonight, bringing chances for showers. Given the subsidence visible on water vapor over the state, there is some skepticism in this. Even so, the potential for isolated to scattered spinkles were added to the forecast, mainly during the early morning hours. Along with the sprinkle potential, fog is expected inland from Lake Michigan tonight, owing to subsidence, light winds, and lingering low level moisture. Fog may grow dense in spots, especially for areas along and west of the longitude of Madison. Toward daybreak tomorrow, northeast winds will take hold driving some potential for sprinkles during the afternoon as a result of shoreline convergence. Scattered stratocu clouds will continue to linger, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The northeast winds will be breezy over the lake tomorrow, causing high swim risk conditions at Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha counties. Waves of 3 to 6 feet are expected along with dangerous currents. Swimming is not advised between 7am Wednesday to 4am Thursday while the Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Thursday through Tuesday: An upper level ridge will sharpen Thursday, promoting continued seasonable warmth. High pressure near the surface will continue to drive northeast flow off of the lake, keeping near surface dew points relatively low. Winds will come around to southerly on Friday as the low exits and a cold front approaches from the northwest. Said cold front will move over the area from northwest to southeast Friday evening, but a lack of convergence along the front and relatively low moisture/PWATs ahead of the front will keep shower activity fairly broken. NBM PoPs range from 15 to 25% chances along the boundary at this time. Following the frontal passage, cool dry air will be pushed into the Great Lakes by a large occluded extra-tropical cyclone near the Hudson Bay. Highs will only top out near 70 toward the end fo the extended period amid continuing dry conditions. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Clouds have scattered somewhat this afternoon, allowing SCT to CLR conditions at times over parts of southern WI. Other BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings persist. Models project clouds continuing to scatter into tonight beneath subsidence aloft. With low level moisture lingering, fog is expected overnight, mainly inland from Lake Michigan. A some scattered areas of clouds may linger overnight as well, leading to some isolated to sct'd sprinkles. Daytime cu is expected to return tomorrow, with continuing chances for sprinkles. Light north winds will continue into this evening and will become light and variable overnight. Winds then become northeasterly tomorrow. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 220 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Higher pressure will remain over the Great Lakes through Friday. A breezy period of northerly winds will persist today through tomorrow as the high pressure moves in behind retreating low pressure. Light to moderate north winds are then expected Wednesday night into early Friday, before winds turn southerly Friday morning head of an approaching cold front. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee