FXUS63 KLMK 251304 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 904 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Remaining cool and dry through the first half of the weekend. * Frost Advisory for the far eastern portion of our CWA along and east of the I-75 corridor this morning. * Rain chances increase Sunday night into early next week with unsettled weather and cool temperatures over the Ohio Valley for much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The frost advisory across the Bluegrass was allowed to expire, as temperatures have warmed into the low 40s. Will send a new suite of products now that the advisory has expired. Issued at 757 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 As the sun rises (predominantly behind clouds) on this Saturday, we do have some light returns on radar, as expected. While the vast majority of this precipitation is aloft and is evaporating while falling through a very dry layer of air in the lowest 10 kft of the atmosphere, can't rule out that some of this doesn't start making it to the ground. The main corridor for any light rain showers through the morning hours will be up along the I-64 corridor, where elevated H7 relative humidity values and an H85 warm frontal zone are currently analyzed. Have added a slight chance PoP and increased the mention of sprinkles to the forecast later today. Otherwise, the forecast is on track at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure is situated to the east of the region and will continue to slowly slide northeast through the weekend. Aloft, troughing and a closed upper low currently over the central Plains will push east into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. Vorticity shedding and mid-level moisture is spreading northeast from the trough and into the lower Ohio Valley. This is resulting in broken to overcast mid-level clouds streaming in from the west this morning. These clouds are expected to stick around. Through the weekend, we will see a stream of vorticity and mid-level moisture. However, given confluence aloft and dry low-levels, we are looking at a dry forecast. Wouldn't completely rule out an incredibly light sprinkle, but any precip should remain as virga. For high temperatures we are looking at the 60s and low temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s and some area in the low 50s. Current frost headline over our eastern counties continues until 13Z this morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Upper level ridging will build over the Great Lakes and work to break down the closed upper low in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the upper low weakens, it will continue to push east across southern Kentucky. At this point, we may see better low-level moisture over the region to help promote scattered showers. Coverage over southern Indiana would be more isolated. Early next week, the closed low will weaken entirely and the upper pattern then resembles an omega pattern with ridging still centered over the Great Lakes. Troughing over the northern Plains and troughing over New England will strengthen and cut off the ridging to form a closed upper high over southern Canada and closed lows over the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great Lakes. This very complex upper pattern leads to much uncertainty beyond this point, though deterministic guidance and AI guidance is converging on similar ideas. This idea is that the upper low over the Ohio Valley will sink south into the Northern Gulf by Thursday and push off to the east as it is picked up by a shortwave late in the week. That said, this would bring daily chances for showers Sunday night through Wednesday. And the remainder of the week would be dry. Temperatures would likely remain below normal through next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 549 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. BKN-OVC clouds around 10-15kft have blanketed the region and will remain through this TAF cycle. By mid morning winds will pick up out of the east around 4-7kts. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW