FXUS63 KLMK 240654 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 254 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cold morning across southern Indiana and central Kentucky with Frost and Freeze headlines in effect. * Remaining cool and dry through the first half of the weekend. * Rain chances increase Sunday into early next week with unsettled weather and cool temperatures over the Ohio Valley. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A cold morning is ongoing across the area as temps have dipped well into the 30s in most spots. Widespread frost looks like it will be a good bet by dawn given the current temps, but still a little iffy on just how widespread the freezing and sub-freezing temps will be in the Freeze Warning area. Currently, there are 3 mesonet sites at or below freezing, and several others close. Given that we still have 4- 5 hours to go before daytime heating commences it appears plenty of areas will be at or below freezing before it is all said and done. We are getting some high clouds streaming overhead, which may increase a bit toward dawn, but overall see no reason to change the headlines as they are pretty decently on track at the moment. Outside of that, little to talk about from a sensible weather perspective. High pressure remains in control today with temps climbing out of the cellar into the upper 50s and low 60s for most. a few mid 60s still possible south. Upper sky cover will gradually increase through the day, so highs may be a degree or two cooler than yesterday. Tonight, looks to be another chilly night specifically across our NE CWA where high clouds will stay away longest and there will be time to radiate out. Here, some lows solidly in the mid 30s may again be possible. Won't issue any Frost Advisory headlines just yet til' we collaborate with ag partners to determine the extent of this morning's frost/freeze. May end up needing a headline in the Bluegrass counties of KY, but that can be handled later today if need be. Otherwise, look for milder lows in the upper 30s and low 40s across the rest of the CWA due to increased sky cover. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Saturday - Saturday Night... Brief upper ridging builds in Saturday between a shortwave digging across the Great Lakes region, and a central Plains closed low. This will keep us dry with temps in the 60s under plenty of mid and upper sky cover. Will mention that a few data points still suggest some very light precipitation setting up across our northern CWA due to some increased mid level moisture convergence. Will keep a very small chance in for Sat PM, but slightly better chances for very light rain arrive overnight with continued increasing mid and upper level moisture. Time heights do show a pretty dry layer below H7 initially, so it will take a bit of time to saturate the lower levels. Even then, rates will be quite light. Sunday - Thursday... The upper ridging gives way by Sunday, and we'll see a weakly defined Rex Block slide from the central CONUS into our area. We'll likely catch a section of the meandering closed low or perhaps an open wave by then. Either way, we'll see deeper moisture associated with this feature, which will bring scattered shower chances for Sunday, possibly lingering through early to mid week as a very complex upper pattern evolves. Still low confidence in any fine details as an anomalously deep trough will likely develop through early to mid week with another intense shortwave diving into the mix. The end result for sensible weather will feature below normal temperatures and off and on rain chances each day. Look for temps generally in the upper 50s and low 60s, along with small diurnal ranges and low in the 40s each night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 114 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period. A few high clouds look to drift in overnight and through Friday, but will not impact aviation. Light and variable winds are expected for most of this TAF period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-078-081- 082. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ023-026-061- 062-070>076. IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BJS