FXUS63 KLMK 201058 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 658 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy SW winds and warm temperatures expected on Friday ahead of a cold front. * Unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend, with highs in the 70s and 80s expected. * Increasing threat of strong to potentially severe storms ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday evening and overnight. SPC has the northern part of the CWA in a slight risk. * Cooler and mainly dry conditions are expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 412 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Weather for the end of the week looks to remain mostly dry with continued warming. Another weak sfc system will work across the Great Lakes today dropping a sfc cold front towards the Ohio Valley later this afternoon and evening. While we will see a few high clouds, the best dynamics and available moisture will be off to our northeast this afternoon. The new SPC Day 1 outlook has shifted the Marginal risk or (1 out of 5). This seems to make sense as mixing this afternoon should help to lower dewpoints into the mid/upper 40s thanks to mixing. Decided to follow neighboring WFO's in lowering Td as NBM guidance had been running quite a bit higher than previous observed values. This will decrease the available instability with most of the CWA remaining mostly dry today with highs waring into the upper 70s to near 80 later this afternoon. Our weather will remain quiet overnight and into Saturday. Cold front that moves through tonight will start to lift back northward as a warm front during the day Saturday. Limited moisture should keep us mainly dry but there could be a few scattered to isolated showers or thunderstorms along the KY/TN border during the day Saturday. Highs once again warm into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 412 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Main impacts through the weekend and into early next week will be the following: Unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday and Sunday as highs warm 15 to 25 degrees above seasonal normals. Highs will range from the mid/upper 70s on Saturday to the low/mid 80s on Sunday. Threat of potential severe weather Sunday night into Monday morning. With temperatures allowed to warm into the low/mid 80s we could see dewpoints work into the the mid/upper 50s but recent trends in the NBM have had dewpoint values running higher than observed. Model soundings for Sunday evening show MUCAPE/MLCAPE to be between 900- 1200 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates 7-7.5 C/km and 0-6km shear 45-50 kts. I think the one potential limiting factor is the models soundings also show a mid-level stable layer. If the boundary and approaching LLJ can provide enough lift we could get the development of strong to potentially severe storms firing ahead of the boundary. Hail, gusty winds and with the shear, can't rule out the potential for a spin-up tornado. SPC has put our northern CWA into a slight risk or a 2 out of 5 for Sunday in the Day 3 convective outlook. I'd say confidence in severe as of now is low but as we go into the weekend we could see that confidence increase as the hi-res models start to key in on the event. Colder and drier weather will arrive behind the departing front for early next week. After days above normal for Friday into the Weekend, highs will fall into the 50s and 60s through mid week as lows fall into the 40s and 30s. The weather through the start of the week looks to be mainly dry before we start to see our precipitation chances increase Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 658 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Few high clouds continue to stream in ahead of an approaching system working through the Great Lakes today. Winds will increase out of the southwest with possible 25-30kts. Mainly high clouds and VFR flight categories are expected with the gusty afternoon winds the main impact. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN