FXUS63 KLMK 191440 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1040 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures warm each day before reaching the 70s and 80s by Friday into the weekend. * Sunday night into Monday, a cold front drops temperatures back to the 50s with an additional chance of rain for some. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 This morning, a weak mid-level perturbation is crossing the lower Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. Increased moisture can be seen on 7.3-micron WV channel and is manifesting as a mid-level cloud deck which is mainly along and east of I-65 as of this hour. While we'll continue to have scattered mid- and high-level clouds through the day, more clearing to the NW of the region will lead to more sunshine this afternoon. This should help temperatures warm into the mid-to-upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon, and the latest forecast has nudged temperatures slightly upward for this afternoon. Have also removed mention of sprinkles from the forecast given latest trends in guidance as well as satellite and forecast sounding trends. Overall, the forecast remains on track, with a milder and quiet day expected across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Updated forecast products were sent in the last 10 minutes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 High clouds will continue to filter over the area this morning before clearing out later this afternoon as a weak shortwave moves over the Great Lakes. Other than a few sprinkles, the weather should remain mainly dry and also start a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend. More sunshine later this afternoon as the clouds push through with highs in the mid/upper 60s to near 70. Clear skies around as we go overnight but not as cold with lows in the mid/upper 40s. Another weak shortwave will work along the northwest flow aloft through the Great Lakes with a few more afternoon clouds but should be mainly high and with some afternoon mixing could get some gust of 20-30 mph. Highs continue to get warmer for the end of the week with highs in the low/m,id 70s with upper 70s around Bowling Green. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 442 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 As we go into the weekend the weather story remains the unseasonably warm temperatures. Temperatures climb into the 70s to mid 80s. We continue to keep an eye on a cold front expected to work across the Ohio Valley from the north Sunday night into Monday morning. This is expected to cool temperatures back into the low 50s to mid 60s early next week. Model trends continue to keep most of the precipitation to our east and north as this boundary moves through, As was mentioned in the previous discussion, we could see some elevate instability, can't rule out some hail or gusty winds but the overall severe threat looks low at this time. The rest of the forecast looks mainly dry but cooler. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 636 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A weak upper wave is working across the Great Lake and the Ohio Valley, High clouds associated with this system is passing over KY this morning. We will have high BKN/OVC skies this morning and there is even the chance of a few sprinkles but most will remain dry. We will remain VFR through the forecast and expect clearing to take place later today into the overnight. Winds will remain out of the south through the forecast period as well. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN