FXUS63 KLMK 041906

AFDLMK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Louisville KY

306 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Mostly dry weather continues this afternoon and evening, with just 

  a 10-15% chance for an isolated shower near Lake Cumberland the 

  rest of today. Dry overnight, but some patchy fog may occur east 

  of I-65 tomorrow morning. 



* Isolated to scattered slow moving showers and storms (20-40% 

  coverage) are possible east of I-65 on Wednesday.



* Better shower and storm chances, along with summer warmth and 

  humidity, will return later this week, peaking at 40-60% Friday 

  into Saturday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



It is another very nice day for early August across the region, with 

temps in the low to mid 80s, a dense field of fair weather diurnal 

cu, and dry conditions. There is some agitation to the cloud deck on 

satellite imagery over TN and parts of eastern KY, which is where 

the best chance for some pop up afternoon showers or storms are 

possible in the vicinity of an inverted sfc trough. Mesoanalysis 

notes we've been able to destabilize to around 1000-2000 J/kg of 

SBCAPE this afternoon from roughly BWG to LEX and southeastward. 

Will continue to carry a 10-15% chance mainly for the Lake 

Cumberland area through this afternoon, with just about everywhere 

else expected to remain dry. 



For tonight, quiet conditions continue under mostly clear skycover 

and light winds. There is a signal for some patchy dense fog early 

Wednesday morning, mainly east of I-65. 





The upper level cut off low will remain over the southeast for 

tomorrow, but we will see a bit more theta-e advection and upper 

level troughing to support an increase in precip chances for 

tomorrow. Per the HREF mean ensemble, we'll see SBCAPE peak between 

750-1500 J/kg tomorrow afternoon, with the higher instability east 

of I-65. Model soundings show very weak flow through the entire 

column, perhaps less than 10kts, so shear will be virtually 

nonexistent tomorrow. This will result in any storms tomorrow to be 

nearly stationary. We'll see activity decrease by the evening hours 

when we lose peak heating again. Overall, most could end up staying 

dry tomorrow, but there is a greater chance for an isolated to 

scattered shower or storm in our area tomorrow than for today.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



===== Thursday through Saturday =====



Broad upper troughing will be over the central portion of the 

country for the end of the week and into the weekend. A sfc cold 

front will drop south through the upper Midwest, though looks to 

struggle to make it into our area by the end of the week as upper 

level support lacks the momentum to keep pushing the front south. 

However, we'll still see an increase in precip activity for this 

time frame, with daily highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s, and 

increasing moisture to support isolated to scattered showers and 

storms. For each day, expect afternoon diurnal convection to blossom 

as daytime heating results in 1500-2000+ J/kg of CAPE, however the 

severe risk continues to appear low given the weak flow through the 

entire column and the lack of shear for any organized convection. 

Any storms on these days would be slow moving pop-ups, though PWATs 

up to 1.8-1.9" will support some efficient rainfall rates. There 

could be a low-end flooding risk if the same areas see multiple slow 

moving or stationary storms. 





===== Sunday into Early Next Week =====



Lower confidence forecast going into next week as mentioned in the 

prior discussions, with our forecast leaning on the evolution of 

western US ridging and downstream troughing. If we end up with a 

more expansive upper ridge across the US, a drier and warmer 

forecast is possible next week. However, an amplified type pattern 

will be the contrast, with more precip chances into next week. We'll 

carry on with the NBM's solution of a few rain chances next week but 

not a wash out any particular day.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



Dense diurnal cu field has blossomed across the region this 

afternoon, but VFR conditions are expected to continue. The cu field 

will diminish by this evening as we lose peak heating. We'll have 

light winds and mostly clear skycover overnight, and could see some 

patchy fog development. Not very confident in any terminal impacts, 

but LEX/RGA have the best chance for a tempo vis restriction.



&&



.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...None.

IN...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...CJP

LONG TERM...CJP

AVIATION...CJP