FXUS63 KLBF 070520 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain near to above seasonal average throughout the week, with above average temperatures by the weekend. - Outside of slight chances of rain midweek north of Highway 2, the forecast remains dry throughout the week. - Potential return of fire weather conditions by late week, with above average temperatures and low humidity. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Upper level analysis and water vapor satellite imagery place an upper level trough from the Great Lakes to southern Texas, with an upper level ridge over the Sierra Nevada range. At the surface, high pressure is observed over the Plains, with a cold front tracking south across southern North Dakota. Satellite imagery remains relatively clear this afternoon, outside of passing high clouds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The cold front tracking across the Dakotas enters the region tonight, bringing some cloud cover and northeasterly winds overnight. Some uncertainty remains in how far south the front will continue to track overnight, before stalling out and retreating north during the day. With the arrival of the front tonight, lows drop into the mid to upper 20s, with partly cloudy skies starting around midnight. Winds become a bit gusty, with northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 20 mph overnight. For tomorrow, leaned towards the trend of the front diving further south tonight, into far southwest Nebraska, with the retreat back along the Highway 83 corridor during the day. The area along the front will remain a bit tricky in the temperature forecast, as a fairly tight gradient is expected. On the cold side of the front in north central Nebraska, afternoon highs top out in the mid to upper 40s. Across southwest Nebraska, on the warm side of the front, highs reach into the 60s. The sharp gradient is expected to be along a Valentine to Broken Bow line, where the current forecast calls for highs in the low to mid 50s, however, a subtle shift in the expected position of the front could result in much warmer or cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 352 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Upper level flow is fairly zonal across western Nebraska on Tuesday. A low pressure system develops along the Rocky Mountains and tracks into the region. With the low pressure system and downslope flow from the west, breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday afternoon, with westerly wind gusts up to 30 mph. The downslope flow will also contribute to warming conditions, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s across the region. This system tracks east overnight introducing slight chances of precipitation (less than 25 percent) through Wednesday afternoon across portions of northern Nebraska, mainly for areas north of Highway 2. However, this is expected to bring only a few hundredths of an inch of rain at best. This system also brings a bit of a "reset" to slightly above average temperatures on Wednesday, with highs in the 60s across the region. As this system tracks out of the region, high pressure develops under an upper level ridge. This should contribute to a steady rise in afternoon high temperatures Thursday afternoon into the weekend, with highs potentially reaching into the 80s by Saturday. Interestingly, the upper 70s to lower 80s still sits on the lower end of guidance, generally around the 10th percentile in the NBM. Could see these temperatures trend warmer as the week progresses. Will need to keep an eye on the extended forecast, as the well above average temperatures and low relative humidity values mayreintroduce fire weather conditions to the region. Will still need to monitor trends in the wind forecast, as well as green up throughout the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight across western and north central Nebraska. The lone exception would be across northern Nebraska later this morning, behind a cold front moving into the area. Low stratus development is possible and could lead to periods of MVFR conditions, though this remains uncertain for now. Future MVFR inclusion at KVTN may be needed should confidence grow. Winds shift northeasterly early this morning, before gradually veering east and then southeast by late afternoon, at around 5 to 10kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Richie SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Brown