FXUS63 KJKL 191904

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

304 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Following low end rain chances Tuesday night, chances will peak

  on Wednesday and also linger through the remainder of the week

  and into the weekend.



- Expect temperatures to return to near normal Wednesday, with

  even cooler temperatures in store by early next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025



Only very minor changes were made to blend mid day obs into the

forecast and to adjust tonight's POP based on latest model runs.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 151 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025



We have one more day of really hot weather in store before

temperatures start to ease off tomorrow. There are very low rain

chances today. In fact, PoPs are too low to include mention in 

the public forecast, but we also cannot completely rule out an 

isolated shower or two popping up during the afternoon, especially

at higher elevations near the KY/VA border. Rain chances will 

start to increase tonight as an upper trough replaces the ridging 

that we've been underneath, and also a surface boundary comes 

together along the Ohio Valley by this evening. Rain chances will

increase considerably on Wednesday as the southeastward-moving 

surface boundary interacts with what promises to be a very 

unstable environment. Indeed, by 18Z the boundary should be all 

the way through eastern KY, so this means that any active weather 

that does develop during the afternoon tomorrow will likely be 

post-frontal. The region remains under a marginal risk of 

excessive rainfall for tomorrow/tomorrow night, so a few of the 

cells that do develop may produce heavy rainfall. But overall QPF 

values from now through Wednesday (36-hour totals) remain under 

1/4" across the bulk of eastern KY.



.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)

Issued at 242 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025



Lower rain and storm chances remain in the forecast for Thursday

and Friday as there will still be plenty of instability and

moisture in place across eastern KY. By week's end, the 

aforementioned surface boundary appears to retrograde and build 

back into the local area, thereby bringing increased rain and 

storm chances on Saturday. This feature will finally come through 

as a cold front on Sunday or Sunday night while a weak upper 

trough accompanies the fropa. So look for a significant air mass 

change by the first of next week as rain chances drop off and 

autumn-like temperatures replace the heat and humidity.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025



VFR conditions will persist until late tonight. Valley fog is

forecast to develop overnight, mainly in south central and 

southeast KY, and may affect KSME and KLOZ at times around dawn. A

cold front will bring a possibility of a few 

showers/thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday as it approaches and 

moves through from northwest to southeast. The most likely 

locations for these would be in south central and southeast KY 

toward the end of the forecast period on Wednesday. The fog or 

precip could result in localized IFR or worse conditions. 



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...HAL

SHORT TERM...ROSE

LONG TERM...ROSE

AVIATION...HAL