FXUS63 KIWX 210632

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

232 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above to much above normal temperatures into early Sunday,

  before cooler (but still somewhat above normal) temperatures

  arrive for early next week. 



- A dry pattern overall with chances (20-50%) for showers and 

  isolated storms on Sunday, and then again toward the end of 

  next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Despite the cold start this morning (mid 30s to mid 40s),

temperatures are expected to rebound into this afternoon as the

cool N and NE flow quickly shifts to more southerly and WAA

commences. By late afternoon, the area will be in the 60s NE to

at least the mid 70s SW, with the potential for one more day

of overachieving highs with some potential for a stray 80 degree

being recorded. Will defer any further temp increases to the day

shift to see how fast the WAA gets going. 



Some changes in the forecast wrt temps, precip and thunder

chances late tonight into Sunday as trends suggest a somewhat

faster arrival to the northern stream trough and associated cold

front. Highs Sunday are likely to occur near/shortly after 12Z

for the NW quarter to maybe third of the area with the front

progressing southeast through the day. Capping ahead of the

front will likely limit/prevent convection from forming ahead of

the front until maybe the US-24 corridor when some isolated

showers and storms could occur in the 18-21Z time frame. A band

of showers then occurs post frontal to bring maybe a tenth or 2

of rainfall to some areas. Given all these factors, the threat

for severe weather in the SE appears to have lowered even

further with the new SWODY2 outlook trimming the NW extent of

the Marginal risk. Pops have been capped at no more than upper

chc for the time being, but some likely pops may be warranted

post frontal based on some hints in a few of the models. 



A NW flow will dominate the start of the work week with highs

near or below normal (coldest near Lake MI) before some

moderation back somewhat above normal into mid week. A strong

upper level ridge will expand across the southern US, resulting

in any gulf moisture being cut off to a series of weak

disturbances passing to our north. Yet another cold front

arrives Thursday/Friday sending temps back down once again. 





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



High pressure passes by to the north of the area into the morning 

pointing to east winds at the surface and dry air. This gives way to 

a low pressure system reaching the Northern Great Lakes by the end 

of the TAF period, which allows south/southwest winds to take over 

for the latter half of the day. Within this scenario, expect VFR to 

be predominant. However, those east winds do have a chance to bring 

some Lake Erie air in here and could cause some VIS reductions this 

morning as we're also seeing with below 10 mi VIS in NW OH. Also, 

expect a low level jet to slide by to the northeast allowing 10 kt 

sustained winds this afternoon and gusts to around 20 kts. This may 

be enough to just retain sustained into the 10s of kts.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Fisher

AVIATION...Andersen/Roller