FXUS63 KIWX 210522

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

122 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mild this weekend, then turning cooler early next week. 



- A dry pattern overall with chances (20-40%) for showers and 

  isolated storms on Sunday, and then again toward the end of 

  next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



A compact shortwave diving southeast through the eastern Great Lakes 

will drop a cool front through the area late this afternoon into 

early this evening. Dry low levels will make this a dry frontal 

passage with cooler air funneling in tonight into Saturday morning. 

The front will retreat and/or wash out completely by Saturday 

afternoon with return southerly flow supporting a nice temp recovery 

back into the 60s to near 70F by late in the day. 



The next shortwave trough and frontal passage late Sunday morning 

into Sunday afternoon is expected to feature slightly better 

low level moisture return and a tight thermal gradient for a 

potential weak frontal wave. This brings chances for showers and

isolated storms along the frontal slope during this time from 

nw to se, though chances were generally held in the 20-40% range

as spread remains on how quickly the moisture return and 

developing sfc wave come together (better chances east of the 

area). Mid afternoon timing of the surface portion of the front 

with temperatures possibly making a run at 80F with ample deep 

layer shear could bring an isolated hail/wind threat with any 

convection south of US 24 Sat PM, though this is highly 

dependent on the timing of the front and when the cap breaks 

(best chances south-southeast of the area late afternoon- 

evening). 



The post-frontal shot of colder air into Sunday night and Monday 

appears brief with temperatures gradually on the rise through the 

Thursday. The next in these series of frontal systems then bring 

rain chances and cooler air back into the fold late in the week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



High pressure passes by to the north of the area into the morning 

pointing to east winds at the surface and dry air. This gives way to 

a low pressure system reaching the Northern Great Lakes by the end 

of the TAF period, which allows south/southwest winds to take over 

for the latter half of the day. Within this scenario, expect VFR to 

be predominant. However, those east winds do have a chance to bring 

some Lake Erie air in here and could cause some VIS reductions this 

morning as we're also seeing with below 10 mi VIS in NW OH. Also, 

expect a low level jet to slide by to the northeast allowing 10 kt 

sustained winds this afternoon and gusts to around 20 kts. This may 

be enough to just retain sustained into the 10s of kts.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Steinwedel

AVIATION...Andersen/Roller