FXUS63 KIWX 201822

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

222 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A moderate swim risk is in effect for Berrien County beaches

  this afternoon. Waves of 2-3 ft and currents are expected and

  conditions should improve into this evening.



- Widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected

  late Sunday. Most locations will receive 0.5-1.5" of rain with

  pockets of 2" or more possible along and south of US-24.



- A high swim risk is expected for southeast Lake Michigan

  beaches on Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.



- Highs will remain in the 70s for much of the upcoming week

  with additional chances for rain mid to late week.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Not a whole lot of changes to the ongoing forecast this shift.

Pretty nice Spring day today with shortwave ridging rippling

through the continued cyclonic flow over the area associated

with the broad low pressure circulation over Ontario, Canada.



The next disturbance moving eastward out of the Rockies into the

Plains states overnight tonight will begin to move into the CWA

by Sunday early afternoon into our western portions of the area

first before spreading north and eastward into the remainder of

the CWA through the afternoon and early evening hours. With 

still a more southern track with this system the main impacts 

look to be further south with the center of the circulation 

moving through southern IN. This will put a more easterly flow 

over our area and main deformation band that will lead to mainly

light to moderate rainfall. Virtually very little instability 

will be present over northern IN however with some better 

lifting and mid level flow available over central IN some 

embedded thunderstorms across our far southern tier of counties 

will be possible. A strong to even severe thunderstorm cannot be

totally excluded at this time. SPC currently has a marginal 

risk of severe storms over the southern portions of the CWA for 

Sunday. With a pretty juicy environment (PWATs around 1.7 

inches) this should be a fairly efficient rain producer. 

Expectations right now are about 1 to 2 inches of precipitation 

for this event, perhaps a few locations may see up to 3 inches 

especially if some thunderstorms move through those areas. WPC 

has a slight risk for the excessive rainfall outlook for Sunday 

over our area. Confidence is still not high that we could see 

the heavier amounts so did refrain from hoisting any Flood 

watches to our area. 



Rainfall looks to begin ending from the northwest to the

southwest on Monday before another break in the action with

another shortwave ridge moving into the area on Tuesday before 

our next shortwave disturbance moves through on Wednesday. This

system looks to have a more northerly track this time and

moisture will be a bit harder to come by so not looking as

productive as this next system but will continue to monitor as

we go out in time. 



Highs this week still look to remain in the 70s look to at 

least through Friday. However, looking further out it appears 

an omega type blocky pattern may develop over central Canada 

with broad ridging building into the central CONUS which looks 

to bring us more summerlike weather conditions beginning next 

weekend and if the block does indeed develop we could be stuck 

in that mode for a bit.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1213 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



VFR through the period. West-northwest winds gusting 15-25 

knots at times this afternoon will become light and variable 

tonight as weak sfc ridging settles in.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Andersen

AVIATION...Steinwedel