FXUS63 KIWX 201614

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

1214 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A moderate swim risk is in effect for Berrien County beaches

  today. Waves of 2-3 ft and currents are expected.



- Widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected

  late Sunday. Most locations will receive 0.5-1.5" of rain with

  pockets of 2" or more possible along and south of US-24.



- Highs will remain in the 70s for much of the upcoming week

  with additional chances for rain mid to late week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Weak shortwave currently shearing out just north of our CWA. A few 

showers noted in radar/surface obs but dry/stable low levels and 

weak forcing keeping coverage and amounts very limited. This 

activity is expected to exit our SE zones right around 12Z with 

mostly sunny skies for the rest of today and into the early 

overnight. Peak solstice sun angle will likely once again push highs 

very near 80F despite cool-ish 850mb temps.



Late Sunday remains the primary focus for this forecast package as a 

more formidable shortwave ejects out of the Central Plains. Right 

entrance upper jet dynamics will yield increasing low level 

warm/moist air advection into at least our southern zones by late 

afternoon. Earlier noted trend toward a surface low track just south 

of our CWA continued in the 00Z guidance and lowers the risk of 

severe weather. There are still a few exceptions (such as the 3km 

NAM) which still lift the surface low into our area. While it 

certainly still bears watching, this is looking more like an 

outlier. Of slightly greater concern is the potential for some 

pockets of heavier rain in our SE zones. Still looks like a 

widespread 0.5-1.5" for our CWA (lowest north) with some potential 

for pockets of 2" or more in our southeast where better moisture 

convergence will reside. A more southern track limits even the 

elevated instability though with poor midlevel lapse rates and PW 

values stay generally below 2" outside of our far S/SE. A flood 

watch may eventually be needed for parts of our south but 

uncertainty with instability/rainfall amounts results in confidence 

too low for watch issuance at this time. Our forecast area also 

luckily missed out on the very heavy rain which fell over southern 

Indiana Wed night and we should be able to handle 1-2" of rain with 

minimal impacts.



Showers exit Mon morning and expect dry conditions through Tue. 

Persistent negative height anomaly over eastern Canada will maintain 

cool WNW flow with highs in the 70s through Fri. Several weak 

midlevel perturbations will also yield periodic chances for rain and 

a few storms mid-late week. A return to more typical summer weather 

looks to arrive next weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1213 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



VFR through the period. West-northwest winds gusting 15-25 

knots at times this afternoon will become light and variable 

tonight as weak sfc ridging settles in.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AGD

AVIATION...Steinwedel