FXUS63 KIWX 200608 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 208 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this afternoon through Wednesday night for southeastern Lake Michigan beaches. - Cold frontal passage moving through today will bring less humid conditions for the remainder of the week. - Much cooler conditions arrive for late weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A cold front currently draped northeast to southwest over northwestern IN/southwestern MI per latest visible satellite data and surface observations will continue to move southeastward this afternoon. This will allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon mainly south of US-24. A few of the storms may become strong with wind as the main threat with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph in the strongest storms. Heavy downpours will also be possible with the still very humid conditions present with surface dew points in the 70s. Effective bulk shear values will be minimal with less than 20 kts available. SPC does have our southern portions of the CWA under a marginal severe storm risk this afternoon/evening. In the wake of the cold front along with breezy northwesterly winds tonight with gusts 15 to 20 mph and a return to drier weather conditions we will also see a noticeably more comfortable airmass push into the area over the next several days with values in the lower 60s to upper 50s. High temperatures will also be cooler with Wednesday values only in the upper 70s with slightly warmer temperatures in the lower to mid 80s through Saturday. This frontal passage will also bring high swim risk to area Lake Michigan beaches with waves 3 to 5 feet with a few higher waves possible through Wednesday. This will allow for dangerous rip currents and structural currents. So best to stay out of the water and wear life-vests near the water. On Saturday, a trough originating over the Gulf of Alaska will move south trough central Canada into the Great Lakes region and will bring in another reinforcing shot of cooler air into the area. High temperatures on Sunday and through at least Tuesday will be in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s. Seemingly our first taste of whats to come in the Fall. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 149 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 MVFR cloud decks abound over MI, IN, and NW OH which should improve by later Wed afternoon/evening. Outside of a clearer patch just west of KFWA, ceilings are generally 1000-3000 ft, with a few sporadic BKN005-BKN009 reports (more of them over central Lower MI). For now think KSBN will linger around 1500-2500 ft through the period, and then KFWA as well but with the potential for a brief IFR stint if the lower patch sinking southward stays at present levels. As of this writing, K62/KANG are reporting 1000ft, and KIRS/KJYM/KDTL/KRMY are all between 700-900. Have a tempo for around 1000 until 9z, when I have bkn 1000. It's possible we see 700 feet, but held off. Will amend if I suspect they make it south (Only the NAM in guidance has this low). N-NW Winds shift to the N-NE overnight into Wed. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ277. Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...MCD