FXUS63 KIWX 200523

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

123 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Large temperature swings are expected through next week with

  highs ranging from the 40s to the 70s.



- Overall dry pattern through next week with just a low chance

  of rain on Sunday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Typical spring temperature roller coaster is the main story for this 

package as our region continues to reside between strong western 

CONUS ridge and persistent Quebec troughing. General W/NW flow on 

the downstream side of strong ridge also portends an overall dry 

period but there will be a few chances for light precip with the 

more robust clipper systems. Morning showers driven by initial 

WAA/isentropic ascent have now exited our eastern CWA and expect dry 

conditions through tonight. Next shortwave arrives by late tonight 

though with increasing warm/moist air advection aloft and tightening 

surface gradient. This should keep lows around 40F. Best midlevel 

CVA and left exit upper jet forcing bypasses to our NE during the 

day Friday. Trailing cold front could spark a few sprinkles 

(particularly east) but chances for measureable precip appear very 

low given NE displacement of forcing and relatively dry/stable 

environment. Even latest NBM pulled back on slight chance PoP's and 

have therefore capped forecast at 10% everywhere. Temps ahead of 

this cold front will surge into the low 70s across our southern 

zones while an earlier passage keeps highs in the 50s across MI. It 

will also be on the breezy side ahead of the front with gusts up to 

30 mph once diurnal mixing kicks in.



Temps drop into the 30s Fri night but rebound quickly on Sat, well 

into the 60s as surface anticyclone shifts SE and WAA increases 

again. Highs on Sun surge near 80F ahead of the next system with a 

brief period of strong/deep SW flow. Very similar system with better 

forcing passing to the NE but chances for rain are a little better 

with this system given some better moisture and stronger ascent. 

Could even be a few thunderstorms but severe risk is very low. Temps 

plummet again behind the system with highs on Mon only in the 40s. 

Some additional low chances for light precip next week but overall 

dry pattern persists with temps climbing near 70F once again by

Thu.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



A theta-e plume passes through the area between now and Friday 

evening with a cold front pushing through midday Friday into the 

afternoon. Plenty of dry air causes a dry frontal passage and will 

keep flight conditions in VFR as a result. Winds gradually veer 

through the period with southerly winds becoming southwest in 

the morning and becoming northwest during the afternoon. Because

the front is already bisecting the area around midday, mixing 

likely is stunted at SBN, but given timing it is possible that 

FWA gets into favorable mixing. This allows the best chance for 

25 kt gusts to be at FWA. While LLWS may be possible, it's 

residence time and intensity appears too low to include in these

TAFs.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AGD

AVIATION...Roller