FXUS63 KIWX 191713 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 113 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon generally south of US Route 24 across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. A few strong storms are possible with localized heavy rainfall and isolated wind gusts to around 50 mph possible. - A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this afternoon through Wednesday night. There is a High Swim Risk for southeast Lake Michigan beaches this afternoon into Wednesday night. - Cold frontal passage moving through today will bring less humid conditions for the remainder of the week. - Much cooler conditions arrive for late weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A cold front currently draped northeast to southwest over northwestern IN/southwestern MI per latest visible satellite data and surface observations will continue to move southeastward this afternoon. This will allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon mainly south of US-24. A few of the storms may become strong with wind as the main threat with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph in the strongest storms. Heavy downpours will also be possible with the still very humid conditions present with surface dew points in the 70s. Effective bulk shear values will be minimal with less than 20 kts available. SPC does have our southern portions of the CWA under a marginal severe storm risk this afternoon/evening. In the wake of the cold front along with breezy northwesterly winds tonight with gusts 15 to 20 mph and a return to drier weather conditions we will also see a noticeably more comfortable airmass push into the area over the next several days with values in the lower 60s to upper 50s. High temperatures will also be cooler with Wednesday values only in the upper 70s with slightly warmer temperatures in the lower to mid 80s through Saturday. This frontal passage will also bring high swim risk to area Lake Michigan beaches with waves 3 to 5 feet with a few higher waves possible through Wednesday. This will allow for dangerous rip currents and structural currents. So best to stay out of the water and wear life-vests near the water. On Saturday, a trough originating over the Gulf of Alaska will move south trough central Canada into the Great Lakes region and will bring in another reinforcing shot of cooler air into the area. High temperatures on Sunday and through at least Tuesday will be in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s. Seemingly our first taste of whats to come in the Fall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Showers and storms have moved out of the area. MVFR cigs can now generally be expected through the next 24 hours due to cold air advection in association with a cold front moving through the region. There could be some improvement to VFR this afternoon, but expect ceilings to lower again tonight. Hazy conditions are also expected tonight given moist low-level airmass from all of the rain that fell this morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon south and east of FWA, but don't have confidence that these will impact the terminal. Winds will continue to shift to the northwest and then northerly behind the cold front tonight. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through late Wednesday night for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through late Wednesday night for MIZ277. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for MIZ177. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...Cobb