FXUS63 KIWX 110552

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

1252 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light lake effect snow showers tonight, with lows 17-24

  degrees.



- 1-2" of light snow possible Thursday night, mainly south of

  US-30. 



- More light snow is expected this weekend, along with very cold 

  air. Wind chill values may drop below -10F Sunday morning.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 129 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



A trailing cold front, currently near the US 24 corridor as of 18z, 

will continue southeast clearing the rest of our forecast area by 

early this evening. Associated convergence under weakened 

deformation will allow for light precipitation (rain changing to 

light snow) to accompany this feature with little to no snow 

accumulation. 



Attention then turns to marginally favorable conditions for LES late 

this afternoon into tonight as 850 mb delta T's push 20 in colder 

northwest flow. The overall moisture quality and meager 5-6 kft 

inversion heights doesn't really favor a sustained vigorous lake 

response, though the cloud layer does reach into the DGZ for 

localized 1-2" snows and minor travel impacts in favored nnw flow 

snow belts. 



Cold northwest flow will send a couple more clippers southeast 

through the Midwest and Ohio Valley late this week into the weekend. 

These appear to be your more classic clippers that have relatively 

narrow snow swaths (2-5"). A model consensus favors the Thursday 

night wave and heavier fgen snow to bypass just southwest of the 

area, though still possibly clipping areas mainly southwest of US 30

with a quick 1-2" of snow. Still some wriggle room left for a slight 

north or south tick. Another clipper then follows through Saturday 

afternoon-night with additional snow chances, followed by LES and 

sub-zero wind chills Sunday into Sunday night. This cold/wintry 

pattern then finally breaks down next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1246 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



VFR to MVFR conditions are expected at the terminals tonight

into Thursday evening. Outside of a few flurries expect dry

conditions with ceilings hovering between 2500-3500 ft for a

majority of the time. Ceilings of around 2000ft are possible at

KSBN between 15-18z, so have a tempo for that. Otherwise,

ceilings lifting to around 4K or greater with NW winds shifting

west-southwest through the day, becoming light and variable

overnight. Light snow with MVFR ceilings could impact KSBN

towards the 3-6z time period, but confidence is too low to

include as a predominant group. Have a prob30 for now. 



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-

     046.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Steinwedel

AVIATION...MCD