FXUS63 KIWX 052307

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

707 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain with a few non-severe thunderstorms through late this

  evening, mainly along and south of US 24. Rain tapers off from

  northwest to southeast later tonight. Cloudy cover will become

  more scattered overnight into Wednesday morning. Lows around

  40 degrees. 



- Cool and Dry Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the mid-

  upper 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday

  morning will be in the mid-upper 30s. Areas of frost are

  possible, especially in Michigan and for areas along and north

  of US 30 in Indiana and Ohio. Warmer Thursday night. 



- Warmer starting Friday and continuing into the weekend, with

  highs in the 60s and low 70s. There are chances for rain each

  day, with the best potential Friday afternoon and Sunday.

  Thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026



A stalled cold front lingers just southeast of our CWA, with a sfc 

trough over Lake Michigan that will shift eastward through the 

afternoon and evening. Aloft, fairly zonal flow today, with a 

broader trough extending from a closed low over James Bay into the 

northern Plains. At 300mb, a 120kt jet streak from South Dakota to 

Quebec will couple with a 130kt jet streak extending from the desert 

SW into our area. This will provide upper level support this 

afternoon into later this evening for continued precipitation-

especially along and south of US 24. A surface low-type feature 

lifts northeastward along our frontal boundary with time, with 

moisture transport focused along/ahead of it (best transport to us 

late this afternoon/early evening). Upstream T-storm activity has 

been sparse thus far, but with better forcing arriving along the 

surface front late this afternoon/evening (peak heating), we could 

see scattered development for a brief time. Severe weather is not 

expected. Otherwise, in the far NW where precipitation chances are 

lowest-expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. 



For areas north of US 24, expect cloud cover to become more 

scattered overnight. Rain chances taper off for areas along/south of 

US 24, ending by morning. Lows will fall to around 40 degrees. 



Expecting dry conditions on Wednesday-Thursday, with a surface high 

building into the Great Lakes. An upper level trough associated with 

the aforementioned 500mb low over James Bay/Hudson Lake will bring a 

couple of shortwaves through during this time, but dry air is likely 

to preclude any precipitation until late Thu PM/Friday. Highs will 

be in the mid-upper 50s. 



Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be in 

the mid-upper 30s. Areas of frost are possible, especially in 

Michigan and for areas along and north of US 30 in Indiana and Ohio. 

Warmer Thursday night. Any sensitive vegetation could be damaged 

with frost. 



Warm air advection Friday will bring highs into the low to mid 60s 

during the day, with a cold front passing through from NW to SE late 

in the afternoon/evening, reaching southeast of our area by 7am ET 

Saturday. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms 

along/ahead of the front. After a lull Saturday morning, additional 

chances for precipitation return in the late afternoon and overnight 

as an upper level trough moves in. A surface low takes shape by 

Sunday morning right over IL/IN, and continues eastward through late 

Sunday evening. For now have higher-end precipitation chances during 

this period, with low chances for thunder. Highs Saturday will be in 

the upper 60s, low-mid 70s, then drop into the 60s, low 70s by 

Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 704 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026



Showers persist this evening on the backside of a cold front

that passed through the area earlier today; I can't rule out a 

few passing showers north of US 24 but showers are expected to 

be most widespread along and south of the US 24 corridor. Light

rain and mist will continue at KFWA until about 06Z, with MVFR 

to possibly even as low as IFR ceilings at times. KSBN is 

expected to be dry. VFR ceilings are expected to prevail by

06-09Z as clouds clear from northwest to southeast overnight.

Winds become light and variable this evening and overnight,

increasing to around 10 kts out of the northwest by tomorrow

afternoon.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MCD

AVIATION...Johnson