FXUS63 KIWX 051811 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 211 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain with a few non-severe thunderstorms through late this evening, mainly along and south of US 24. Rain tapers off from northwest to southeast later tonight. Cloudy cover will become more scattered overnight into Wednesday morning. Lows around 40 degrees. - Cool and Dry Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the mid- upper 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be in the mid-upper 30s. Areas of frost are possible, especially in Michigan and for areas along and north of US 30 in Indiana and Ohio. Warmer Thursday night. - Warmer starting Friday and continuing into the weekend, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. There are chances for rain each day, with the best potential Friday afternoon and Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 A stalled cold front lingers just southeast of our CWA, with a sfc trough over Lake Michigan that will shift eastward through the afternoon and evening. Aloft, fairly zonal flow today, with a broader trough extending from a closed low over James Bay into the northern Plains. At 300mb, a 120kt jet streak from South Dakota to Quebec will couple with a 130kt jet streak extending from the desert SW into our area. This will provide upper level support this afternoon into later this evening for continued precipitation- especially along and south of US 24. A surface low-type feature lifts northeastward along our frontal boundary with time, with moisture transport focused along/ahead of it (best transport to us late this afternoon/early evening). Upstream T-storm activity has been sparse thus far, but with better forcing arriving along the surface front late this afternoon/evening (peak heating), we could see scattered development for a brief time. Severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, in the far NW where precipitation chances are lowest-expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. For areas north of US 24, expect cloud cover to become more scattered overnight. Rain chances taper off for areas along/south of US 24, ending by morning. Lows will fall to around 40 degrees. Expecting dry conditions on Wednesday-Thursday, with a surface high building into the Great Lakes. An upper level trough associated with the aforementioned 500mb low over James Bay/Hudson Lake will bring a couple of shortwaves through during this time, but dry air is likely to preclude any precipitation until late Thu PM/Friday. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be in the mid-upper 30s. Areas of frost are possible, especially in Michigan and for areas along and north of US 30 in Indiana and Ohio. Warmer Thursday night. Any sensitive vegetation could be damaged with frost. Warm air advection Friday will bring highs into the low to mid 60s during the day, with a cold front passing through from NW to SE late in the afternoon/evening, reaching southeast of our area by 7am ET Saturday. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. After a lull Saturday morning, additional chances for precipitation return in the late afternoon and overnight as an upper level trough moves in. A surface low takes shape by Sunday morning right over IL/IN, and continues eastward through late Sunday evening. For now have higher-end precipitation chances during this period, with low chances for thunder. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s, low-mid 70s, then drop into the 60s, low 70s by Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front is expected to slide southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes to the Tennessee River Valley during the next 24 hours. Given the location of the better moisture and the LLJ, the better rain chances exist along and south of US-24, which affects FWA, but likely keeps SBN in VFR conditions. FWA likely sees MVFR conditions as the rain affects it. Better moisture sinks from the mid- down to the lower levels of the atmosphere making MVFR CIGs possible there between 20 and 00z this evening. Otherwise, dry air continues to push southward allowing a return to VFR thereafter. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...Roller