FXUS63 KIWX 051731 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 131 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain develops this afternoon into this evening, mainly along and south of the US 24 corridor. - Below normal temperatures mid week with rain chances (30-60%) returning Friday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 Scattered showers will remain possible this morning behind a convective outflow, and in the vicinity of a sfc cold front dropping through from northwest to southeast. A few rumbles of thunder will also remain possible, mainly in our far southeast (Portland IN to Lima-Ottawa OH). Increasing upper level divergence/forcing and incoming shortwave energy on the southern fringe of a stalling Upper Midwest upper trough will result in a strengthening baroclinic zone along and southeast of the US 24 corridor this afternoon into this evening. Good moisture transport into this developing corridor of elevated frontogenesis should allow widespread rain to develop during this time. There will be a sharp cut-off to the rain with much of nw IN and sw MI potentially rain-free during the PM hours as drier low level undercuts the frontal circulation. Cool and mainly cloudy otherwise today with temperatures generally in the 50s. Below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday within a broad trough axis. Heights do relax a bit Friday into the upcoming weekend signaling a slight warmup to temperatures more typical for early May. West-northwest flow will persist however, sending several shortwaves and frontal systems through the region. Timing of these waves per a model consensus favors Friday-Friday evening and Saturday night-Sunday for the best chances (30-60%) for rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front is expected to slide southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes to the Tennessee River Valley during the next 24 hours. Given the location of the better moisture and the LLJ, the better rain chances exist along and south of US-24, which affects FWA, but likely keeps SBN in VFR conditions. FWA likely sees MVFR conditions as the rain affects it. Better moisture sinks from the mid- down to the lower levels of the atmosphere making MVFR CIGs possible there between 20 and 00z this evening. Otherwise, dry air continues to push southward allowing a return to VFR thereafter. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Roller