FXUS63 KIWX 050644

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

244 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers will remain possible this morning.



- Widespread rain develops this afternoon into this evening,

  mainly along and south of the US 24 corridor.

 

- Below normal temperatures mid week with chances (30-60%)

  returning Friday and Sunday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026



Scattered showers will remain possible this morning behind a 

convective outflow, and in the vicinity of a sfc cold front dropping 

through from northwest to southeast. A few rumbles of thunder will 

also remain possible, mainly in our far southeast (Portland IN to 

Lima-Ottawa OH). 



Increasing upper level divergence/forcing and incoming shortwave 

energy on the southern fringe of a stalling Upper Midwest upper 

trough will result in a strengthening baroclinic zone along and 

southeast of the US 24 corridor this afternoon into this evening. 

Good moisture transport into this developing corridor of elevated 

frontogenesis should allow widespread rain to develop during this 

time. There will be a sharp cut-off to the rain with much of nw IN 

and sw MI potentially rain-free during the PM hours as drier low 

level undercuts the frontal circulation. Cool and mainly cloudy 

otherwise today with temperatures generally in the 50s. 



Below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are anticipated 

Wednesday and Thursday within a broad trough axis. Heights do relax 

a bit Friday into the upcoming weekend signaling a slight warmup to 

temperatures more typical for early May. West-northwest flow will 

persist however, sending several shortwaves and frontal systems 

through the region. Timing of these waves per a model consensus 

favors Friday-Friday evening and Saturday night-Sunday for the 

best chances (30-60%) for rain. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1220 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026



Showers and embedded thunder along a convective outflow will 

exit KFWA by 07z or so. Dry and mainly VFR otherwise early this

morning. A cold front moves through before daybreak at KSBN and

KFWA by 12-13z. Scattered showers may accompany this feature

with a period of high MVFR to low VFR cigs possible at KFWA.

More widespread rain likely develops this afternoon into this

evening at KFWA as a frontal waves develops. Better prospects 

for cig/vis restrictions will be just south of KFWA, with KSBN 

definitely VFR and potentially dry by this time as drier air 

begins to make inroads.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Steinwedel

AVIATION...Steinwedel