FXUS63 KIWX 050420 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1220 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few non-severe storms will remain possible this morning. - Widespread rain develops Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, mainly along and south of the US 24 corridor. Cooler with highs only the 50s to low 60s. - Below normal temperatures and occasional low chances for showers mid week through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 This evening-tonight's marginal risk for severe weather was upgraded to a slight risk for portions of the area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is medium. There are some uncertainties with regards to the start time of the event. Much of the guidance initiates storms closest to 7-8 pm EDT, but there are still several models that begin closer to 5-6 pm EDT. A lot will depend on the available moisture-which could limit development initially (well mixed boundary layer from full sun earlier today). A decent cu field has developed for areas west or just along I 69 as of this writing. Dewpoints are in the mid-upper 40s and low 50s, driest further north in MI/NW Ohio. This is lower than what the earlier timed models suggest (NAM/RAP)--values are closer in line to the HRRR. If the HRRR is right, development may be closer to 8 pm EDT when the better moisture arrives (still only mid 50s) with strengthening of the LLJ. Main focus for convection will be a mid-level wave riding up from the southwest this evening (aforementioned "warm-front-like" feature in prev. AFD)-then the cold front that drops from NW to SE through the overnight. The main threat with any severe storms would be damaging wind gusts given inverted-V type soundings. Large hail is also possible with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear and mid level lapse rates around 7C/KM (could be slightly higher further south of US 30 this evening per the NAM). Heavy rain and ponding of water on the roads is a threat in any thunderstorms, however overnight there could be some minor flooding in areas that receive repeated storm activity (from both the earlier wave ahead of the cold front and then the cold front itself). SPC did add a 2 percent tornado risk with the increased low level shear (decent hodographs)...however it's conditional on moisture profiles as well (which is our greatest uncertainty). If we get the deeper moisture we could see LCL's in the 500-1000 m range (more favorable for tor risk). Per their discussion, they will re- evaluate the moisture quality for the tor risk. Otherwise, cold front continues eastward through Tuesday, stalling near US 24, with surface low riding up along/southeast of it through the afternoon. Rain will be fairly widespread (especially along this corridor), with chances for a few thunderstorms (Non-severe). As the surface low drifts E-SE through Wednesday, expect dwindling chances. Dry conditions Thu, then chances for rain and a few storms return Fri into the weekend. Highs Wed-Fri will be in the 50s, low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s Wed night (coldest along/north of I 80-90) with light winds-so there could be some frost potential. Warmer Sat-Sun with highs in the mid-upper 60s, low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 Showers and embedded thunder along a convective outflow will exit KFWA by 07z or so. Dry and mainly VFR otherwise early this morning. A cold front moves through before daybreak at KSBN and KFWA by 12-13z. Scattered showers may accompany this feature with a period of high MVFR to low VFR cigs possible at KFWA. More widespread rain likely develops this afternoon into this evening at KFWA as a frontal waves develops. Betterprospects for cig/vis restrictions will be just south of KFWA, with KSBN definitely VFR and potentially dry by this time as drier air begins to make inroads. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...Steinwedel