FXUS63 KIWX 041701

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

101 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry conditions today into Wednesday with highs in the low-to-

  mid 80s.



- Chances (40-80 percent) for showers and storms return

  Wednesday evening and persist into Friday. Heavy rain is

  possible.



- Low chances for showers and storms Saturday into Tuesday(20-40

  percent).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 504 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



An upper level ridge/sfc high pressure builds in today and lingers 

through Wed. Because of this, we have a nice break in active weather 

through Wednesday, with partly to mostly clear skies, light winds, 

and highs in the 80s. Patchy fog is possible early this morning, but 

should improve shortly after sunrise. 



Next chance for showers and storms looks to be Wed evening, 

continuing through early next week. Our upper level ridge drifts 

eastward and a broad trough stemming from a closed low over Hudson 

Bay takes hold of the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move in 

from NW to SE, stalling along the southern border of our CWA by 

Saturday morning. We'll see return flow around high pressure over 

the Atlantic bring moisture from the gulf into the area during this 

time. Have around a 40-80 percent chance for showers and storms Wed 

PM into Friday, which is when chances begin to dwindle from NW to 

SE. Heavy rain is possible. Severe weather is not expected at this 

time. With the front stalling south of the CWA, we could end up dry 

Saturday outside of low 20 percent chances or so in the vicinity of 

the front. Some of the guidance generates precipitation in the 

afternoon with an incoming shortwave, but my confidence isn't too 

high in this. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s.



A couple additional waves move through the slightly troughed/zonal 

pattern aloft Sunday into Tuesday, bringing chances for additional 

showers/storms (20-40 percent). The best chances are associated with 

the stronger wave on Monday into Tuesday. Highs will be in the

80s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



High pressure over Indiana will provide tranquil conditions

during the TAF period, including wind less than 10 knots.

Increasing clouds late in the period, but remaining VFR, as a 

cold front slowly approaches from the west. Lingering dry air 

looks to preclude any -SHRA mention at this time. Cannot 

completely rule out patchy ground fog near daybreak Wednesday. 



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MCD

AVIATION...Brown