FXUS63 KIWX 031624

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

1124 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow continues affect areas south of US-30 into this

  morning. Any snow accumulations are expected to be less than

  an inch and lowered visibility has been occurring allow for

  the chance for some hazardous road conditions underneath it.



- High temperatures moderate Thursday and Friday before another brief

  shot of arctic air for the weekend late Friday/early weekend.



- Some light snow accumulations possible late Thursday into

  Friday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 252 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



Models have not been handling a bringing a band of higher 

reflectivity through the area early this morning and so have 

resorted to just tracking it and extrapolating it out. This appears 

to be forced along by a mid level vort and is on the backside of the 

upper jet. ARX LaCrosse reported quickly snow covered roads back in 

IA and Waterloo saw visibilities drop under 1 mi indicating heavy 

snow. Since tracking it back over IA/IL area, obs/reflectivity have 

weakened to some extent, but have issued an SPS for the snow as it 

moves through for some slick conditions. 



With this aforementioned area of moving through, it would appear 

that the precip shield from the developing low will struggle to get 

to our southern tier of counties from White to Jay. Meanwhile, the 

NAM is still hanging on to bringing a boundary south through MI. 

Lake effect snowfall parameters are very marginal, but given how 

easy it has been to produce snowfall and that convergence along the 

boundary, will still carry PoPs with it. 



Northerly flow down Lake MI has a brief period of convergence around 

LaPorte and potentially on south. Will retain some slight chance 

PoPs for that, but again LES parameters appear meager for that 

occurrence. 



Later Wednesday into at least early Thursday, surface high pressure 

and mid level ridging calms down sensible weather hazards. 

Tempearture-wise, highs in the 20s, become highs in the 30s for 

Friday as a theta-e plume surges through the area. Temperatures fall 

back into the 20s for Saturday through Monday with the cold air 

behind the low.



There is some disagreement in handling the system from Thursday into 

the weekend. The first shortwave comes down from Canada brings a 

chance for light snow as early as Thursday morning, but really only 

the ECMWF produces precipitation. The next shortwave comes in 

Thursday night and early Friday and brings additional disjointed 

opportunities for light snow. NAM bufkit soundings over Lenawee

county have the better moisture just above the DGZ and the 

omega within the DGZ. This setup would tend to lower SLRs

especially with a lack of a Gulf moisture plume. This one comes

with a little bit more agreement in models. System snow pushes 

out Friday morning and lake effect snow takes over Friday 

afternoon into Friday night. The timing of the vort max and the 

arrival of the cold is a little disjointed and the base of the 

trough is already east of Lake MI as early as Friday night, 

which lowers confidence in lake effect snow. At least, it 

appears that there's more agreement in the handling of the cold 

air that starts Friday night and slowly wanes from Saturday 

night into early next week. The GFS is a little bit more west 

than the ECMWF with a second push of cold air on Sunday.



We'll be watching sometime next Tuesday/Wednesday for another low 

pressure system to come towards the area as a trough picks up an 

upper low that was stalled across the southwestern US. Given how 

cold we've been, we'll need to watch for some freezing 

precipitation, but that'll depend where the overrunning/warm front 

sets up. The ECMWF is currently modeling that boundary to 

reside north of the area, while the GFS has it overhead.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1123 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



Weak cold front swings south through the terminals this 

afternoon with light wsw winds becoming northerly (light, <8 

knots) in its wake. A few flurries are possible with the front 

this afternoon. High MVFR cigs likely linger through the 

remainder of the afternoon. Some dry advection noted into 

tonight which could scatter this cloud deck to VFR. Opted to 

hold with high MVFR for now however given the low confidence.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Roller

AVIATION...Steinwedel