FXUS63 KIND 191649 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1249 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures today through the weekend - Little or no rain expected through much of the next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 928 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Some patches of mid and upper level cloud will pass through the area today associated with a weak disturbance sliding southeast in the fast northwest flow aloft, but there should still be ample opportunity for diurnal heating, and the latest high resolution/hourly numerical guidance and obs trends suggest high temperatures needed a slight bump upward. Temperatures should rise well into the 60s across the area, with 70 degree readings certainly possible south/southwest and perhaps as far northeastward as Indy. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A large upper ridge continues across the western CONUS this morning, with central Indiana in northwest flow near the periphery of the ridge. Some upper energy is moving through this flow and creating areas of light rain across mainly lower Michigan early this morning. Most forcing from this upper energy will remain northeast of central Indiana today. An associated weak surface low pressure system will slide southwest of the area. While there will be some weak forcing across central Indiana today, a lack of moisture should prevent any measurable rain. Will go with a dry forecast, but wouldn't be surprised if a few sprinkles moved through, mainly this morning. While there will be plentiful clouds this morning, these will diminish during the afternoon. The sunshine will aid in temperatures reaching the 60s for highs. The area will be in between systems tonight. Partly cloudy skies along with southerly winds will keep temperatures in the 40s for lows. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 More upper energy will move through the northwest flow across the area on Friday, which will bring a cold front through later in the day. Once again, moisture will be limited, so will continue with a dry forecast for central Indiana. Warm advection ahead of the front will bring highs into the 70s. Uncertainty remains on highs on Saturday. The front will eventually return back north allowing warmer air back into the area, but guidance continues to struggle on when it will. Some guidance keeps temperatures in the lower 60s, others warm things back to the 70s (as was the case with most guidance earlier this week). With the upper ridge to the west nosing back in on Saturday, prefer the warmer guidance and will continue to forecast upper 60s northeast to middle 70s southwest. The upper ridge will get flattened and a cold front will move through later on Sunday. Warm advection ahead of the front will allow for the potential of temperatures near 80 degrees. Overall moisture will remain limited, so will only have some low PoPs Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Below normal temperatures Monday will gradually warm through the week as the upper ridge tries to reassert itself, returning to above normal by Wednesday/Thursday. A system might bring some rain by next Thursday. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1249 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Impacts: - Gusty winds developing very late in the period Discussion: Light winds and just some mid and high cloud are expected through the majority of the period. Winds will generally become more southerly to southwesterly gradually with time, though variability can be expected, particularly early in the period. Mid morning on Friday, winds will strengthen and become gusty to around 20-22KT as weak low pressure moves quicklythrough the Great Lakes and strengthens the surface pressure gradient and strong surface heating deepens the mixed layer. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Nield SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...Nield